Bob Marley: One Love and Madame Web both open on Valentine’s Day 2024, and will run for a long weekend. Across the long weekend, which movie will make more money?
As this is a double-y long weekend (Valentine’s Day on the preceding week, President’s Day on the following Monday), we will be counting the full Wed-Mon holiday period when both films will be open. This will mean adding a few numbers on the BoxOfficeMojo site.
This will Resolve when the actuals come in for the movies (most likely on Tuesday for the long, President’s day holiday).
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https://deadline.com/2024/02/box-office-valentines-day-bob-marley-one-love-madame-web-1235826028/
BM’s opening day will be a good chunk of MW’s 6 day total lol . (But at least BM did a fair amount better than expected)
@Ziddletwix yea, this wasn’t even close. I was worried I was gonna have to do a bunch of math here, but it was a blowout.
Paramount’s musical biopic Bob Marley: One Love will tower over Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web, $30M-$35M to $20M-$25M over the six-day Valentine’s Day-Presidents Day stretch
https://deadline.com/2024/02/box-office-bob-marley-one-love-madame-web-preview-1235823356/
With that said, the [One Love] reviews are not good — 36% on Rotten Tomatoes and 45 on Metacritic.
https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2024/2/8/1lp1ncwr1qyzc9qlkumgqhc5sxul24
Bob Marley: One Love is expected to lead over the six-day February 14-19 holiday frame — Wednesday, Valentine’s Day through Monday, President’s Day — with $27 million-$33 million; the pic is strong with Black and Hispanic audiences as well as older adults.
Meanwhile the Dakota Johnson- and Sydney Sweeney-starring Spider-Man spinoff Madame Web is eyeing $25M over six days, with the movie tracking with those under 35. The movie is also solid with diverse audiences.
@Ziddletwix I just go off what BoxOfficeMojo puts in their “Opening” section, but I confirmed this matches Domestic gross, yes.
@mattyb If I’m not wrong the Opening number on BOM only includes FSS, not any of the extra days in a long weekend. Safe to assume you will use BOM’s domestic opening number for resolution even though the description mentions “long weekend”?
@howahlah my favorite thing about BOM is that they have a full Weekends tab, and give you everything.
If you look at Wonka’s grosses over the holidays, they give both the normal and long weekends for Xmas, NYE, and MLK weekend.
I’ll be reporting this long weekend numbers for both here.
@mattyb To make sure I follow, it'll be the FSSM (Feb 16-19) long weekend? I.e. not Tues/Wedn/Thurs?
(Hard to find a comparable example because "Tuesday release before a long weekend" is fairly rare, but I wasn't sure if they'd also report the 6-day or etc totals on that weekend tab like they do for Napoleon)
@Ziddletwix Yea a Wednesday debut is rare, but I’m expect to report on Wed-Sun which is from opening til the end of the normal weekend, this would be Feb 14-18.
I’m not sure if they’ll also include the following Monday, President’s Day in the US, but I guess my phrasing of “the long weekend” means that if they include this as a Wed-Mon weekend, I’ll likely use that number.
@mattyb My guess is that they won't report a Wedn-Sun or Wedn-Mon "long weekend". Hard to tell—e.g. for Napoleon they did (a proper Thurs/Fri holiday), but for most Wednesday releases they don't. E.g. this obscure movie w/ a Valentine's day release in one of the years where that falls on a Wednesday https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3238168065/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs & they only report FSS & FSSM (none including Wedn). Of course, they might not follow that pattern, no idea.
but the distinction might matter (I hear Marley's opening day seems to be strong). So if BOM offers multiple options, what's the priority in which they'll be used? My guess is they'll show FSS & FSSM, and it sounds like FSSM would be chosen for resolution? But if they do offer Wedn - Mon, that would be first priority? (Followed by Wedn-Sunday?).
@Ziddletwix ok, I found a good analog. 2022’s Puss in Boots came out on a Wednesday and only got Fri-Sun and Fri-Mon weekends.
As I intend to see Madame Web on Wednesday, and I expect these to be larger movie days, I’ll sum this myself. We will be counting Wed + Thurs + Fri - Mon weekend (even though this means doing some manual math on my end). I’ll add this to the description.
@mattyb Got it, thanks. Will sell some of my NOs then (looks like BM is particularly strong on opening day, figured MW had a bit more of a shot over the weekend).
(& while summing it up isn't too hard, can also just check the cumulative domestic total through Monday on BOM if that's easier, e,g, Puss in Boots was 26.153M through Monday)