Specifically, will Barbie and Oppenheimer break the current pareto frontier for the top 2 movies weekend domestic gross sales on their opening weekend?
The current pareto frontier is depicted here:
And the data presented in a table:
For example, if both movies open with a box office equivalent to The Little Mermaid ($95.5 M) this market would resolve YES (just barely sneaking in the top left corner!). If one opens at $95M and the other opens at $85M, this point would not surpass the frontier and the market would resolve NO.
The box office data will be sourced from the Domestic tab at https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/
If Barbie or Oppenheimer change their release date such that they do not open on the same day this market will resolve ambiguously.
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Hey @JacobWood , if you have the xls still handy can you show how weird the graph looks now?
Thanks @JacobWood for this kind of market using the Pareto Front! Learned something and enjoyed the guesswork made easier with the image chart!
given my profit graph these days it feels good to have called this! esp as a non-film buff just going on subjective sense of how much people were talking about barbenheimer
I see 155, 80.5 which puts us squarely in historic territory for a YES resolution. I will resolve when the numbers on Box Office Mojo are no longer marked as estimates.
@SirCryptomind Not sure how they know todays number already, unless it is an estimate. These numbers include the premier day.
Without premier + Including the (alleged) projected numbers for today:
Barbie = $132,700,000
Oppenheimer = $48,690,000
@SirCryptomind I had the same question, either those include presales or they have a crystal ball
@parhizj it's just estimates.
Btw, @SirCryptomind , to be clear, this market is probably going to include preview sales as part of "opening weekend", both since it's the convention and also because boxofficemojo concretely does.
@chilli I figured so. I just do not recall seeing any direct clarification from the creator of the market. But understand it is included in day 1 total anyways.
@jeremiahsamroo So this is essentially confirmation that the market resolves yes.
@jeremiahsamroo Just a heads up that the creator has the largest NO position and bought NO at 98%. I don’t know them, so for all I know they’ll resolve fairly. Just a heads up.
Indeed it seems they will resolve fairly despite their NO position. Kudos to them!
Love this market idea :)
Did some maths for a similar market -- https://manifold.markets/chilli/how-much-will-barbenheimer-make-in#iTubX5Sq2RIQJyypuBsN
Barbie is at 70M, Oppenheimer at 33M (for Fri + previews). Typically combined Sat+Sun sees 1-1.5x multiples of the #1 Fri release take. 1x would be (140, 66) 1.2x would be (154, 72), 1.55x would be (175, 82). Beating the (149,39) seems likely.
I did the best I could adding your scenarios to the chart in the description. (Marked in YELLOW)
@SirCryptomind The 150/75 seems to be the estimate most media sites have updated to firmly. So it'll be close.
Reddish dot = initial projection
Yellow dots = projections provided by @wustep
Black dot = current projected numbers through 07/22/2023
Purple dot = current project numbers with estimates for 07/23/2023
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