In the 2016 presidential race, many Republicans vying for the party's nomination suspended their campaigns and withdrew from the race before the first primaries and caucuses had even started, including Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki.
In 2024, the first primary or caucus is scheduled to be the Iowa caucuses on the 15th of January, 2024. If Ron DeSantis suspends his campaign before the first primary or caucus is held, this market will resolve to YES. If his campaign is still going on the day of the first primary or caucus, this market will resolve to NO.
Similar markets: https://manifold.markets/group/campaign-suspension-timing
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Is it specifically before the date of the first primary/caucus, or before the date that the first votes are actually cast? Seems for Iowa that’s a difference of 20 days. https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/electioninfo/absenteeinperson.html
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