Will Ron DeSantis suspend his presidential campaign before the first Republican presidential primary votes are cast?
15
closes 2024
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ67 +578.6%
New probability
16% +3%
In the 2016 presidential race, many Republicans vying for the party's nomination suspended their campaigns and withdrew from the race before the first primaries and caucuses had even started, including Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki.
In 2024, the first primary or caucus is scheduled to be the Iowa caucuses on the 22nd of January, 2024. If Ron DeSantis suspends his campaign before the first primary or caucus is held, this market will resolve to YES. If his campaign is still going on the day of the first primary or caucus, this market will resolve to NO.
Similar markets: https://manifold.markets/group/campaign-suspension-timing
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