Will Ron DeSantis suspend his presidential campaign before the first Republican presidential primary votes are cast?
60
506
1K
resolved Jan 15
Resolved
NO

In the 2016 presidential race, many Republicans vying for the party's nomination suspended their campaigns and withdrew from the race before the first primaries and caucuses had even started, including Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki.

In 2024, the first primary or caucus is scheduled to be the Iowa caucuses on the 15th of January, 2024. If Ron DeSantis suspends his campaign before the first primary or caucus is held, this market will resolve to YES. If his campaign is still going on the day of the first primary or caucus, this market will resolve to NO.

Similar markets: https://manifold.markets/group/campaign-suspension-timing

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bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Tripping this should close on the 15th

predicted NO

Arbitrage

Is it specifically before the date of the first primary/caucus, or before the date that the first votes are actually cast? Seems for Iowa that’s a difference of 20 days. https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/electioninfo/absenteeinperson.html

@JoshuaB the date of the first primary/caucus

predicted YES

[Deleted by user]

@DHc401 Covered in the description