This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' has a higher domestic opening weekend gross than 'Barbie'. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
The respective "Domestic Weekend" tabs on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1517268/ (for days Jul 21 - 23) and https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28814949 will be used to resolve this market once the values for 'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' 3-day opening weekend (October 13-15) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
Opening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is no final data available by October 23, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
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For this bet to be true, Taylor Swift would have to make a gross opening bigger then Barbie which accounted for $356.3 million sales worldwide, calling Barbie officially the biggest movie of the year 2023.
Yes, Taylor Swift's Eras Tour has huge potential to become as successful as Barbie; however, when we look at the marketing strategy of both movies, we can clearly see a difference. The total Marketing cost of the Barbie movie exceeded $150million, gaining worldwide recognition long before the movie reached the screens in the cinema. ( https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-taylor-swift-eras-tour-concert-movie-marketing-chiefs-game-travis-kelce-1235572402/) however when it comes to Taylor's Swift Eras Tour movie, in the USA only $ 5 million have been spent to promote the movie across AMC cinemas. and the data on the marketing cost is hidden
. Not to mention that I, personally, was unaware of the movie coming out, despite being a "Swifite" fan. Hence I vote for NO.
sources : https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/15/taylor-swift-eras-tour-concert-film-opening-weekend-box-office.html https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-taylor-swift-eras-tour-concert-movie-marketing-chiefs-game-travis-kelce-1235572402/
The opening weekend of 'Taylor Swift: Eras Tour' is predicted to be larger than 'Barbie' since Taylor Swift, with 274 million Instagram followers, is a very well-known and popular artist, whereas Margot Robbie, with only 3 million followers. Furthermore, recent concert attendance figures reveal Taylor Swift's huge draw power, with an average attendance of 72,459 per show and even creating seismic activity during a performance in downtown Seattle, proving her immense popularity and economic impact. As Chris Leyden, director of growth marketing at SeatGeek, aptly put it, she's not merely a performer but an 'economic phenomenon'.
@ZinebKaoukab I always try to pay attention to the market probability and account for any differences in a prediction that goes against the market if possible. In this case the market is at 0.5% because projections show it to be significantly lower.