This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:
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McCarthy on X: I will not seek to run again for Speaker of the House. I may have lost a vote today, but I fought for what I believe in—and I believe in America. It has been an honor to serve.
@SemioticRivalry curious why you think it's significantly likely that he will lose speakership then be re-instated? I haven't followed it much but thought it seemed super unlikely
@EliBot if McCarthy loses a single vote, the speakers office is officially vacated. But that doesn't mean that there's another credible candidate to replace him. Repeat of the start of this Congress until they make a deal. Pretty reasonable odds of it happening
@SemioticRivalry Interesting, but wouldn't him being vacated also resolve this question no?
@EliBot only if we somehow go 3 months without a speaker or if another candidate emerges (which definitely isn't impossible but I find somewhat unlikely)
@EliBot If it's vacated the question does not resolve 'no,' because the question is not whether McCarthy will lose the role at any point, but whether we will end the year with McCarthy as speaker, correct?
@BrianCaulfield Eli isn't the question author, (that would be @itsTomekK but quite plainly that seems to be the only plausible interpretation of the question, in my view.