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Resolved 70%. If the question asks "Will X happen?" and doesn't make it clear what happens on the close date, how likely are you to interpret the question as "Will X happen by the close date?" (i.e. it resolves NO on the close date if it hasn't happened yet)? As opposed to "Will X happen ever?" and the market does not resolve until either X happens or definitely cannot happen. If the close date is reached, either the market remains closed and unresolved, or the close date may be extended. In other words, the close date is irrelevant to the resolution, it's either a date to close trading in advance of possible resolution, or a guideline for when resolution is likely. Vote by commenting with YES, NO, or a percentage at the start of your comment. (YES = always by close date = 100%, NO = close date is always irrelevant to resolution = 0%, you can also choose any percentage in between.) The market resolves to the average of valid votes in the poll as of 1 day after market close. You can update your vote by commenting again with a new vote; only your last vote will be counted. A few examples: https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-a-delaware-judge-order-elon-mu https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-elon-musk-back-out-of-the-deal https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-the-musk-twitter-deal-close (author later clarified their intent) https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-set-abandoned-questio https://manifold.markets/FRCassarino/will-i-quit-my-swe-job-at-metafb-to https://manifold.markets/jack/if-i-take-paxlovid-will-i-have-a-co