The “Domestic Daily” tab on the movie's Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve this market, specifically the "To Date" column.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/
If any finalized numbers in the "To Date" column (for dates December 31, 2023 and before) show a value of more than $575 million, this market will resolve to "YES"
This market will resolve to "NO" if once the December 31, 2023 "To Date" number is finalized it hasn't reached $575 million, or if the run ends and the movie stops being carried by cinemas without it having reached that point.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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| 1 | Ṁ5,187 | |
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| 4 | Ṁ806 | |
| 5 | Ṁ281 |
I pushed YES because of https://nintendosupply.com/articles/the-super-mario-bros-movie-returns-to-japan-in-4d#
btw — I feel like a Thanksgiving / Christmas drop is possible, and they usually only give a couple weeks notice for these sort of rereleases.
According to an Article by Forbes, ‘Super Mario Bros. Movie’ has brought in an impressive $573 million domestically since 5th April 2023. Considering this amount was raised within 6 months, even if you take out the earnings for April (popularity in April owing to a fresh release was $224million in 6 days ) you can still draw an overall upward trend/regression line for the movie's marginal earnings over the past 5 months, which has only increased with every progressing month. To conclude, it shouldn't be difficult for Mario to reach another $1 million milestone by the end of this year.
https://movieweb.com/super-mario-bros-movie-becomes-highest-grossing-domestic-movie-of-2023-in-just-6-days/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2023/07/02/biggest-movie-of-2023-so-far-super-mario-bros-movie-trounces-guardians-and-a-mermaid/?sh=3cd12b974e31
As of its April 4, 2023 release date, "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" boasted an impressive domestic gross of approximately $574,934,330, standing tantalizingly close to the coveted $575 million milestone. This figure signifies the film's immense popularity and financial success, raising the compelling question of whether it will breach the $575 million barrier within the remaining months of 2023.
The movie's fate hinges on various pivotal factors, including its ability to maintain its box office performance. Factors such as audience engagement, competition from other films, and strategic marketing efforts will play a crucial role in determining its trajectory.
Surpassing the $575 million mark domestically is a remarkable achievement for any film, reflecting its broad appeal and commercial viability. "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" benefits from the enduring popularity of the Movie and the immense buzz surrounding its release, setting the stage for potential success.
Given the strong foundation it has established and the continued enthusiasm surrounding the film, there is a reasonable expectation that "Movie" will indeed cross the $575 million threshold domestically by the end of 2023. It underscores the enduring charm of beloved franchises and the influential force of nostalgia in the realm of cinema.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/30/the-10-highest-grossing-movies-of-2023-so-far.html
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/
https://thenumbers.com/custom-search?searchterm=Super+Mario+Bros
@YashmeetSingh I do not agree that the Super Mario Bros. Movie will reach $575 million domestically before 2024. Looking at the box office data on the Super Mario Bros Movie, it is very clear that the movie has been sitting at the $574 million box office mark since July 27th. Until September, this has only grown slowly to $574.9 million, which means it is still $100,000 short of reaching the $575 million mark. As of September 9th, the number of theatres showing the movie were a mere 127 with $21 average gross per day per theatre. If this persisted, it would mean it would only take approximately 38 days to reach the $575 million mark. However, as the movie has not been shown in a domestic theatre ever since, it is most likely that the movie will not reach $575 million before 2024. With the probability sitting at 7% currently, this is a safe bet. In future analyses, comparisons with other movies should be done in order to find out how much movies earn at the box office after months of release.
Source:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1930593025/?ref_=bo_tt_gr_1
Yes — feel free to eat my limit order at 30 and 20 :)
While the movie may still have showings in select theaters, I believe the run has ended as recorded by BoxOfficeMojo, which now reports the run as Apr 5, 2023 - Sep 7, 2023 (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1930593025/?ref_=bo_tt_gr_1). Is this sufficient to resolve?
@ReidJohnson For a movie to come back in the same year after having a few days off like this seems rare but not impossible (it happened with Top Gun Maverick).
If not enough family releases in December then maybe a few of them will take back Mario? Unlikely to be enough though to pass the bar though, I would think.
@HenriThunberg I think any rerun around Christmas will be sufficient to bump this over the edge, and so would prefer it close on Jan 5th
No box office report since the Sept. 7 but as far as I can tell there are still limited showings:
@wustep Just curious, where do you find a day-by-day overview like this? Could you provide a link?
@Dennis5a87 You need to click on the "Domestic" https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1930593025/?ref_=bo_tt_gr_1
@wustep It's probably going to end up between $574-575M. The drop since the early DVD/Blu-ray release has been steep enough to make clearing $575M unlikely (though not impossible), especially given the upcoming streaming release on Peacock. It still has a chance if it gets a substantial boost from Independence Day Weekend and stays in theaters a while longer without a major drop from streaming -- but it's a tough road at this point.
This is going to be a close one. I expect it won't resolve for another few weeks. Normally I'd say its trajectory makes it a shoo-in for $575 million, but the early DVD and Blu-ray releases charter it into uncertain territory: https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/6/23751170/super-mario-bros-movie-blu-ray-release-date
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