Will Nikki Haley drop out of the race for President before the end of Feb 2024?
resolved Mar 1
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bought Ṁ25 YES

I think this market is overvalued 1-2%

do I have the balls to bid it down to where I think it should be?


bought Ṁ400 YES

Bet it happens tonight lmao

What caused the spike here?

Guess no one's been doing arb with this market (until now):

bought Ṁ50 NO

@PlasmaBallin We're in legitimate uncharted territory here. I was surprised even DeSantis quit, but Trump's single biggest obstacle to winning – and there are MANY – remains the 91 pending counts against him. (Not at all helped by this week's 3-0 D.C. Circuit vote against him.) If Trump's indicted, the GOP needs a Plan B, and at this point Haley seems to be it.


If Trump's indicted

I assume you mean convicted?

@JeffKirk The problem for Haley is that Trump is very unlikely to be convicted before he's won the nomination. His strategy in all his court cases has been to delay them as long as possible in hopes that he doesn't get convicted before the election. Even if he doesn't succeed in that, he will almost surely at least succeed at avoiding being convicted before he becomes the nominee. And at that point, there wouldn't really be anything the party could do to replace him.

@PlasmaBallin Even if convicted, I imagine he's going to try to delay sentencing. I'm fairly certain the Republican party will still side with Trump but voters are less predictable.

Voters tend to gravitate to candidates that represent the fewest compromises and Trump and Biden are both heavy compromise candidates. Every looming conviction is another compromise. She's positioned herself as a better centrist candidate than Biden and a better right of center candidate than Trump. With most Americans sitting in the center, she still looks like she has the potential to win the general election if properly funded and so far it seems like she's getting that funding.

Politicians run until their funding slows. She and her backers have a lot more to gain by arriving at the convention with as many delegates as possible while making open threats to run as a third party candidate. Trump might say he expects loyalty but he only respects power.

She's staying in in case Trump's criminal problems escalate, right?


So we're back to where does she go from here? Presidential campaign is dud, plus everyone grovelling to Trump.

Buying YES to counteract on @Joshua's intuition

bought Ṁ60 YES from 61% to 63%

@firstuserhere She'll drop out right after I bet a bunch on her staying in

bought Ṁ5 YES from 63% to 64%

Put a 250 limit order on NO at 75%

Buy it out and I'll add more

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