Edward Kmett's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.81
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Edward Kmett bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
- @IsaacKing and @DesTiny together manipulated @DesTiny's personal goal market to earn Ṁ16,000 profit. Will manifold users find that ethnical?NOṀ835
- Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind suffer a significant data breach by the end of 2023?NOṀ24
- Will Lionel Messi score a hat-trick at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?NOṀ19
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- @IsaacKing and @DesTiny together manipulated @DesTiny's personal goal market to earn Ṁ16,000 profit. Will manifold users find that ethnical?NOṀ7,331
- Will Q4 US GDP growth be above 3%?NOṀ1,000
- Will the Effective Altruism Movement experience another major scandal not related to FTX by the end of 2023?YESṀ700
80%
90%
95%
97%