Will there be any surprise world events flipping an end-of-2022 market?
Mini
19
3.1k
resolved Dec 30
Resolved
YES

Before the 31st, will any market that refers to a large event outside of Manifold Markets and is currently considered more-or-less determined flip? E.g., will a nuclear weapon be tested, Putin disposed, or will RealDonaldTrump tweet this year?

This market will resolve YES if someone posts in the comments an example of a qualifying market that was at either 90% or 10% (YES or NO) as of today (December 29th), and due to an undexpected event before or on the 31st, flips to the inverse.

I will use my judgement, and obvious manipulation -- e.g., posting a "Will aliens land in 2022" market, buying it up to 90%, then buying it down to 10% -- will be disqualified.

The market must be liquid as of today.

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https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-600k-subscribers-13667af8954e is a bit more marginal (it was below 10% on the start of Dec 29th, but wibbled above that line briefly before it skyrocketed.) but also should pass the letter of the law when it settles.

@EdwardKmett how this market was just at 10%?

@MP The quick answer is that the trend was too slow – peek at the summary table on https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny. I can only guess if it was a glitch, fluke, botting, etc., but it was a genuine gray swan.

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