Will SBF return to the US by the end of 2022?
Basic
329
187k
resolved Dec 22
Resolved
YES

Resolves if reputable news resource reports that SBF appears somewhere in the US after this question is posted and before the end of 2022

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predicted YES

One week away from the soy and his face no longer looks horrible; lesson in there somewhere

predicted YES

@Gigacasting He lost weight, that's all.

The goblin has landed

"FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried will fly from Bahamas to U.S. Wednesday to face criminal charges" https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/20/indicted-ftx-founder-sam-bankman-fried-to-return-to-us-after-hearing.html

I don’t think todays news is anything other than a confirmation that his lawyers are going to do whatever it takes to get him out of there.

Arbitration opportunity with https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/when-will-sbf-be-extradited-to-the. That market at 80% = this market at 50%.

@Gabrielle not quite, due to how the distribution of outcomes works out

It never made much sense to even fight it unless he got bail in Bahamas, which he probably would get in the US. Coming back seems like ticket to short term freedom.

Yo what is going on with this market

@DeanValentine he stopped contesting extradition. The question then really comes down to whether or not the Bahama legal department will let the US take him in < 2 weeks, when they also want their pound of flesh from him. Normally the process takes weeks, and typically countries don't like extraditing prisoners when they already have them and intend to charge them themselves, though there's some passing comments from them that they intent to pursue their local legal proceedings in parallel while the US works up their charges, so that doesn't sound like they intend to hold onto him hard.

Should be lower by now? 11% risk of a jailbreak?

predicted NO

@MartinRandall As of today's date there's a large number of ~13% 'virtual certainties' that expire on Dec 31st, that just need a ton of money to bring down closer to 10% or single digits. As the reward here drops below that line, it becomes harder to justify this as a relative investment.

predicted NO

@EdwardKmett ....i trusted you.....

Suddenly my biggest loss is on this market.

@MichaelWheatley Not sure how I led you astray, given I was indicating this market seemed like a poor relative investment.

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