Resolves if reputable news resource reports that SBF appears somewhere in the US after this question is posted and before the end of 2022
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Fox News and NYpost say he has arrived in NYC.
"FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried will fly from Bahamas to U.S. Wednesday to face criminal charges" https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/20/indicted-ftx-founder-sam-bankman-fried-to-return-to-us-after-hearing.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ftxs-bankman-fried-appear-bahamas-113104567.html?ncid=twitter_yfsocialtw_l1gbd0noiom&guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMyhCQ03jvIdPJMag50qurTY2m5pUA6JbL9crIANK2oVF_ltHXN0J5e28vnEjvXTQ16DG61q45O96UY_BqRdCv8_mNmUvuJ5ec50S4tnves053T1R_8yntlMn_zzysQp_L4tEgVO-SXq4Nd5Bkteo-n-1O8MxxJZq71dqeEGZSRh
Looks like SBF wasn't aware he was to appear in the Bahamas court today, nor has he agreed to be extradited at present.
No idea what this means but it seems relevant https://ewnews.com/wasted-day-sbf-sent-back-to-prison-after-court-confusion
Arbitration opportunity with https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/when-will-sbf-be-extradited-to-the. That market at 80% = this market at 50%.
@DeanValentine he stopped contesting extradition. The question then really comes down to whether or not the Bahama legal department will let the US take him in < 2 weeks, when they also want their pound of flesh from him. Normally the process takes weeks, and typically countries don't like extraditing prisoners when they already have them and intend to charge them themselves, though there's some passing comments from them that they intent to pursue their local legal proceedings in parallel while the US works up their charges, so that doesn't sound like they intend to hold onto him hard.
@MartinRandall As of today's date there's a large number of ~13% 'virtual certainties' that expire on Dec 31st, that just need a ton of money to bring down closer to 10% or single digits. As the reward here drops below that line, it becomes harder to justify this as a relative investment.
@MichaelWheatley sorry, just saw your message. https://manifold.markets/kolotom99/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2022 https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/conditional-on-the-elon-musk-twitte https://manifold.markets/jack/will-elon-musk-name-a-new-noninteri
then there's things like https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/when-will-sbf-be-extradited-to-the-ea467bf3233d which act as an effective hedge against this going up
@MichaelWheatley Not sure how I led you astray, given I was indicating this market seemed like a poor relative investment.