Will we have a Speaker of the House by Friday?
171
52
2k
resolved Jan 7
Resolved
NO

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predicted YES

I have no idea how this is 0.9% chance when there is no specified date (just friday), it closes in 2 days (why?) AND the vote concluded on Friday's session.

We must fight for proper rulings, or we encourage ambiguity in markets

Massive Troll with Shield

@Gen In Texas it's still Friday for another 15 minutes and we already have a speaker

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@LarsDoucet Friday in 6 days, and we already have a speaker, who was elected on a FRIDAY session no less.

I think the decision is clear.

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@Gen The market creator actually clarified in a comment below that Eastern Time would be considered.

predicted NO

@Conflux He knows. He's just trolling.

@Conflux Gotcha

predicted YES

@Conflux Yes he did in fact clarify Eastern time, he also did NOT answer the question ruling whether or not a decision after midnight would count (during Friday's session)

There was also no date specified, and the market is still open.

I think it's a bit much to close it several days before the relevant Friday, but regardless, I encourage you all to buy before we get too close ! No way will this market stay at 1%

predicted YES

@squirrelfish Why would I troll? I am continuing to buy shares because while this market is still ambiguous it SHOULD resolve YES

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@Gen It would only make sense for the market creator to specify a time zone if the actual time, not the session of Congress or whatever, was relevant. Also, the other two big markets on this have already resolved NO, and I think that's the clear consensus answer.

predicted YES

@Conflux The other two markets both specified a date, and a time, and closed at that date & time. This market is just "Friday". Friday's session? Friday the 6th? Friday the 13th? Nobody knows.

The market is still open, and the smart people are still buying YES, so I assume it's still destined for a YES resolution. Otherwise, why wouldn't it have closed?

Seems obvious to me. Sell your NO while you can

bought Ṁ300 of NO

@Gen If the smart people agreed with you, the market would be above 2% lol

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Will this market have a 99% turn around?

it's over

predicted YES

oh right

bought Ṁ2,000 of NO

The last vote + counting took about an hour so doesn't seem crazy to me that this one makes it in time

bought Ṁ2,000 of NO

Y'all, this is also Eastern - market creator clarifies this in a comment below

bought Ṁ10 of YES

If this is ambiguous, I'm setting up a new market at https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-elected-spea for "the 15th ballot" ignoring whatever day it will be

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Which timezone are we working with lol

bought Ṁ31 of YES

@DavidDavidson Considering it closes in 2 days, I assume its Friday's session (obviously the 1% market disagrees with me)

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

what do you think the odds are they get this done by midnight?

predicted YES

@Hamm There is literally no way, it takes 15mins just to read the names

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

What are they doing

predicted YES

@AlexRockwell They are finally going to kiss