Will the Effective Altruism Movement experience another major scandal not related to FTX by the end of 2023?
318
2kṀ69k
resolved Jan 25
Resolved
YES

This market resolves "Yes" if, by 11:59 p.m. AoE on 31/12/2023 at least three Wikipedia-notable publications publish an article about the misbehavior of a major philosophical voice or financial donor of the Effective Altruism Movement that directly relates the purported behavior to the ideals or structure of the Effective Altruism movement (i.e. "Figure X accused of Embezzlement" does not count; "Figure X, sheltered by 'Effective Altruists', accused of Embezzlement," does). Reports by minor publications, accusations on Effective Altruism forums, etc. do not count. If no such thing occurs, this market resolves "No."

UPDATE 1 (13-1-2023 @ 10:01 P.M.): There is a Business Insider article that explicitly mentions Bostrom, his relationship to effective altruism, and the email scandal. Insofar as I can tell, this is the closest thing to an article about the scandal as it exists now that ties it to Effective Altruism. I am inclined to count this as one in favor of the requisite three, but am open to more discussion on this in the comments.
UPDATE 2 (17-1-2023 @ 7:54 A.M.): Discourse in the comments leaves me inclined to not count the above-linked article.

UPDATE 3 (20-1-2023 @ 9:57 A.M.): See the status of particular articles here. When three distinct articles on the same topic get a "Yes," that's what this market will resolve to. If the movement makes it the rest of the year without such an event, this market resolves "NO." This is not a change in the stipulations I laid out above, but rather a more effective and public way of tracking it than the analog method that I was probably going to end up using. Thanks to @HenriThunberg for making this spreadsheet.

Jan 23, 7:42am: Will the Effective Altruism Movement will experience another major scandal not related to FTX by the end of 2023? → Will the Effective Altruism Movement experience another major scandal not related to FTX by the end of 2023?

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