DismalScientist

resolved Jan 26

Will Q4 US GDP growth be above 3%?

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

In 2022 according to the official real GDP estimate released on a January 26, 2023 by BEA https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Notes on this:

Each quarter’s GDP is estimated over three consecutive months
Estimates are annualized
Real values (Adjusted for inflation)
Data are seasonally adjusted

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	Johnny Ten-Numbers	Ṁ3,825
2	DismalScientist	Ṁ391
3	TBone	Ṁ62
4	Sidd Hartha	Ṁ45
5	Isabel J	Ṁ39

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DismalScientistpredicted NO at 55%

Ended up at 2.9% https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#fromnber

Edward Kmettpredicted YES

@DismalScientist gg so close.

DismalScientistbought Ṁ10 of NO

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast is 3.5%, but seems like the highest of the “Blue Chip” Forecasts was below 3% as of January 2nd https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?item=96A50F7F-FD51-4D29-AE29-E15039B7561F

Nominal vs. real GDP growth?

Seasonally adjusted or not?

Annualized or quarterly? Or year-over-year?

DismalScientist

@octothorpe I am going to use the number released here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product so real GDP, seasonally adjusted, and annualized.

DismalScientist

@DismalScientist Edited the description to add these details

Tripping sold Ṁ10 NO from 54% to 55%

Tripping bought Ṁ10 NO from 55% to 54%

woob bought Ṁ10 YES from 54% to 55%

Songstress bought Ṁ10 YES at 54%

Edward Kmett bought Ṁ50 YES from 51% to 54%

Johnny Ten-Numbers bought Ṁ100 NO from 57% to 51%

Edward Kmett bought Ṁ50 YES from 55% to 57%

Alex sold Ṁ27 YES from 56% to 55%

S G bought Ṁ10 NO at 56%

oh no bought Ṁ10 YES at 56%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ28/Ṁ100 YES at 56% (cancelled)

Johnny Ten-Numbers bought Ṁ80 NO from 59% to 55%

JAAM bought Ṁ10 YES at 59%

Johnny Ten-Numbers bought Ṁ50 NO from 62% to 59%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ100 NO at 62% (cancelled)

TBone sold Ṁ58 NO from 60% to 63%

David Heer bought Ṁ40 YES from 58% to 60%

Adrian Meier bought Ṁ10 YES from 57% to 58%

Adrian Meier bought Ṁ10 YES at 57%

Adrian Meier bought Ṁ10 YES from 56% to 57%

Adrian Meier bought Ṁ10 YES at 56%

Adrian Meier bought Ṁ10 YES from 55% to 56%

Adrian Meier bought Ṁ10 YES at 55%

Adrian Meier bought Ṁ10 YES from 54% to 55%

CANTaxMan bought Ṁ10 YES at 54%

Daniel Balchev bought Ṁ10 YES from 53% to 54%

Isabel J sold Ṁ10 NO at 53%

DismalScientist bought Ṁ100 NO from 59% to 53%

Edward Kmett created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 50%

Edward Kmett created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 5% (cancelled)

Edward Kmett created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 10%

Edward Kmett created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 15% (cancelled)

Edward Kmett created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 20%

Edward Kmett created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 25% (cancelled)

Edward Kmett created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 30%

Edward Kmett created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 35% (cancelled)

Edward Kmett created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 40%

Edward Kmett created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 45% (cancelled)

Johnny Ten-Numbers bought Ṁ300 NO from 68% to 59%

Johnny Ten-Numbers filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ700 NO at 68%

Edward Kmett filled limit order Ṁ250/Ṁ250 YES at 60%

Edward Kmett created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 55% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 NO at 69% (cancelled)

Edward Kmett created limit order for Ṁ1,000 YES at 50% (cancelled)

Edward Kmett bought Ṁ500 YES from 66% to 70%

Edward Kmett bought Ṁ100 YES from 62% to 66%

Johnny Ten-Numbers filled limit order Ṁ139/Ṁ500 NO at 70%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ16/Ṁ100 YES at 62% (cancelled)

Johnny Ten-Numbers bought Ṁ130 NO from 70% to 61%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 71%