Will Q4 US GDP growth be above 3%?
63
1.3kṀ8198resolved Jan 26
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In 2022 according to the official real GDP estimate released on a January 26, 2023 by BEA https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Notes on this:
Each quarter’s GDP is estimated over three consecutive months
Estimates are annualized
Real values (Adjusted for inflation)
Data are seasonally adjusted
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,825 | |
| 2 | Ṁ391 | |
| 3 | Ṁ62 | |
| 4 | Ṁ45 | |
| 5 | Ṁ39 |
People are also trading
Will US Q2 GDP be positive?
45% chance
Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023-2025?
2% chance
Conditional on there being a US recession in 2024, will Q3 2024 have negative gdp growth?
4% chance
Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023-2026?
8% chance
Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?
56% chance
Will US real GDP in Q1 2030 be at least 50% greater than in Q1 2025?
35% chance
Sort by:
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast is 3.5%, but seems like the highest of the “Blue Chip” Forecasts was below 3% as of January 2nd https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?item=96A50F7F-FD51-4D29-AE29-E15039B7561F
@octothorpe I am going to use the number released here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product so real GDP, seasonally adjusted, and annualized.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will US Q2 GDP be positive?
45% chance
Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023-2025?
2% chance
Conditional on there being a US recession in 2024, will Q3 2024 have negative gdp growth?
4% chance
Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023-2026?
8% chance
Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?
56% chance
Will US real GDP in Q1 2030 be at least 50% greater than in Q1 2025?
35% chance