DismalScientist avatar
DismalScientist
resolved Jan 26
Will Q4 US GDP growth be above 3%?
Resolved
NO

In 2022 according to the official real GDP estimate released on a January 26, 2023 by BEA https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Notes on this:

  • Each quarter’s GDP is estimated over three consecutive months

  • Estimates are annualized

  • Real values (Adjusted for inflation)

  • Data are seasonally adjusted

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DismalScientist avatar
DismalScientistpredicted NO at 55%
EdwardKmett avatar
Edward Kmettpredicted YES

@DismalScientist gg so close.

DismalScientist avatar
DismalScientistbought Ṁ10 of NO

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast is 3.5%, but seems like the highest of the “Blue Chip” Forecasts was below 3% as of January 2nd https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?item=96A50F7F-FD51-4D29-AE29-E15039B7561F

octothorpe avatar
octothorpe

Nominal vs. real GDP growth?

Seasonally adjusted or not?

Annualized or quarterly? Or year-over-year?

DismalScientist avatar
DismalScientist

@octothorpe I am going to use the number released here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product so real GDP, seasonally adjusted, and annualized.

DismalScientist avatar
DismalScientist

@DismalScientist Edited the description to add these details