Carl Guo's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -6.04
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Carl Guo bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
- Will Sergio Perez drive for Red Bull in the 2024 F1 Season?YESṀ300
- Will Ludwig Göransson win the Oscar for Best Original Score at the 96th Academy Awards for 'Oppenheimer'?YESṀ100
- Will Nikki Haley overtake and lead Ron DeSantis on 538's Republican Primary page at end of Blue Monday 2024? (Jan 15)YESṀ50
90%
95%
97%