Will George Santos (R-NY) be expelled from Congress during his first term?
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resolved Dec 1
Resolved
YES

Resolves to YES if George Santos is expelled from the US House of Representatives during the 118th Congress (Jan 2023 - Jan 2025). Otherwise NO. If Santos resigns, dies, or leaves Congress for any reason other than being expelled, immediately resolves NO.

Context: Santos, who was elected to Congress in November 2022, was discovered to have fabricated his resume and admitted to it. Each house of Congress can expel a member with a 2/3 majority vote. In addition, he is now facing a number of investigations for possible campaign finance fraud.

See https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/29/us/politics/george-santos-what-next.html or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress for context.

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@jack This market can be resolved.

Wooooo glad I sold out

GG, see you all next House shitshow

predicted YES
predicted NO

Every development in this story is amazing content

predicted YES
predicted YES

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/28/politics/santos-resolution-expel-vote/index.html

Resolution to expel brought forward as privileged, so it'll have to be acted on within 2 legislative days.

predicted YES
predicted YES

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/17/politics/santos-expulsion-resolution-introduced/index.html

House Ethics chairman introduces resolution to expel George Santos from Congress

predicted YES

Some quick vote math:

  • All Dems vote to expel - 213

  • 24 Repubs voted in favor last time - 237

  • 11 additional Repubs voting to expel on Best res. - 248

  • votes needed to expel - 290

  • the current magic number - 42

predicted YES

Magic number now down to 40.

Maybe of note: not a lot of news from FL (0/20), TX (4/25) and other southern GOP reps so far. NY (8/11) and IA (4/4) on the other hand are decisively anti-Santos and seem to have coordinated their support for expulsion.

Given the anti-Santos momentum and no one being willing to stump for him, I don't see how he survives this. To paraphrase Mike Johnson's press guy: 'resign or we kick you out.'

predicted YES

Lmao, if this conference can't get the 77 votes needed to kick out Santos I feel like the next leadership crisis isn't far out.

My reasons for YES:

  • he clearly deserves to be kicked out

  • Mike Best filing the res. gives it more legitimacy and will make it easier to vote to expel

  • kicking him is good for (NY) Repubs (they get a special and a general in NY-03)

  • could use this against Dems (Menendez case)

Reasons for NO:

  • 'due process' view - ie let the courts decide

  • don't want even slimmer margin in House

  • he just resigns (he already said he won't run again)

predicted YES

Okay, he is not resigning.

Here We Go Again GIF
predicted YES

I do wonder whose OnlyFans he subbed to using campaign money...

predicted YES
predicted NO

There is a motion to force a vote on expelling Sanots, brought as a privileged resolution so the House must act on it within 2 legislative days. How will they act on it?

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