Will George Santos (R-NY) be expelled from Congress during his first term?
resolved Dec 1

Resolves to YES if George Santos is expelled from the US House of Representatives during the 118th Congress (Jan 2023 - Jan 2025). Otherwise NO. If Santos resigns, dies, or leaves Congress for any reason other than being expelled, immediately resolves NO.

Context: Santos, who was elected to Congress in November 2022, was discovered to have fabricated his resume and admitted to it. Each house of Congress can expel a member with a 2/3 majority vote. In addition, he is now facing a number of investigations for possible campaign finance fraud.

See https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/29/us/politics/george-santos-what-next.html or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress for context.


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sold Ṁ5 of NO

Since we're all addicted to betting on Santos 😆

bought Ṁ2,400 of YES

@jack This market can be resolved.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Wooooo glad I sold out

sold Ṁ36 of NO

GG, see you all next House shitshow

predicted YES
predicted NO

Every development in this story is amazing content

predicted YES
predicted YES


Resolution to expel brought forward as privileged, so it'll have to be acted on within 2 legislative days.

bought Ṁ100 YES from 76% to 77%
predicted YES
predicted YES

bought Ṁ0 of YES


House Ethics chairman introduces resolution to expel George Santos from Congress

predicted YES

Some quick vote math:

  • All Dems vote to expel - 213

  • 24 Repubs voted in favor last time - 237

  • 11 additional Repubs voting to expel on Best res. - 248

  • votes needed to expel - 290

  • the current magic number - 42

predicted YES

Magic number now down to 40.

Maybe of note: not a lot of news from FL (0/20), TX (4/25) and other southern GOP reps so far. NY (8/11) and IA (4/4) on the other hand are decisively anti-Santos and seem to have coordinated their support for expulsion.

Given the anti-Santos momentum and no one being willing to stump for him, I don't see how he survives this. To paraphrase Mike Johnson's press guy: 'resign or we kick you out.'

predicted YES

Lmao, if this conference can't get the 77 votes needed to kick out Santos I feel like the next leadership crisis isn't far out.

bought Ṁ55 of YES

My reasons for YES:

  • he clearly deserves to be kicked out

  • Mike Best filing the res. gives it more legitimacy and will make it easier to vote to expel

  • kicking him is good for (NY) Repubs (they get a special and a general in NY-03)

  • could use this against Dems (Menendez case)

Reasons for NO:

  • 'due process' view - ie let the courts decide

  • don't want even slimmer margin in House

  • he just resigns (he already said he won't run again)

predicted YES

Okay, he is not resigning.

bought Ṁ100 of YES
Here We Go Again GIF
predicted YES

I do wonder whose OnlyFans he subbed to using campaign money...

predicted YES
predicted NO
bought Ṁ0 of YES

There is a motion to force a vote on expelling Sanots, brought as a privileged resolution so the House must act on it within 2 legislative days. How will they act on it?