Will Donald Trump be convicted of any crime in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023? | Manifold Markets

Will Donald Trump be convicted of any crime in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?

2024

70

28%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

For clarity, this will resolve several weeks into the new year, just in case

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Presidential Politics

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BRTDbought Ṁ50 of NO

the odds of getting a trial for him done by the end of 2023 are near zero. Indicted is very likely though.

Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ0 of YES

@BRTD There could be a deal that has him plead guilty to avoid jail or something like that.

Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 40%

@BRTD Also, Fulton County is going to move a lot faster than any federal case would.

Mason Maternowskibought Ṁ10 of NO

My suspicion is that the Trump Foundation may be found guilty of some charges, but Donald Trump himself probably won't.

Lars Doucetbought Ṁ50 of YES

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/22/us/supreme-court-trump-taxes-house-democrats.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20221122&instance_id=78292&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=149283925&segment_id=113954&te=1&user_id=87b66ea78d6c6a3d855cffdffbf72ab7

Oliviais predicting YES at 49%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ10 YES from 27% to 28%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ15 YES from 26% to 27%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ5 YES at 26%

Andrew Ward bought Ṁ100 NO from 28% to 26%

Gigacasting created limit order for Ṁ54 YES at 24%

Gigacasting created limit order for Ṁ42 YES at 21%

Gigacasting created limit order for Ṁ34 YES at 17%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ35 YES from 26% to 28%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 YES at 26% (cancelled)

Gigacasting bought Ṁ60 YES from 22% to 25%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ100 YES from 17% to 22%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ100 YES at 17% (cancelled)

Trong sold Ṁ192 YES from 22% to 16%

PizzaParty bought Ṁ40 NO from 23% to 22%

camille furius bought Ṁ10 YES from 22% to 23%

hdm bought Ṁ10 NO at 22%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 22%

Matt Reardon bought Ṁ300 NO from 28% to 22%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ26/Ṁ100 YES at 28% (cancelled)

Andrew Ward bought Ṁ200 NO from 31% to 26%

Matt Reardon bought Ṁ100 NO from 34% to 31%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 45%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ100 NO from 37% to 34%

higherLEVELING bought Ṁ15 NO from 38% to 37%

Gigacasting sold Ṁ141 NO from 33% to 38%

Gigacasting filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ22 YES at 16% (cancelled)

Gigacasting created limit order for Ṁ28 YES at 14% (cancelled)

Gigacasting filled limit order Ṁ38/Ṁ38 YES at 19%

Gigacasting filled limit order Ṁ44/Ṁ44 YES at 22%

Gigacasting sold Ṁ445 NO from 23% to 33%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ180 NO from 26% to 23%

Nick bought Ṁ50 NO from 28% to 26%

Evan bought Ṁ20 NO at 28%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ24/Ṁ29 YES at 28% (cancelled)

Brian T. Edwards sold Ṁ71 YES from 31% to 26%

Joseph Noonan sold Ṁ9 YES from 32% to 31%

Trong bought Ṁ250 YES from 18% to 32%

Gigacasting sold Ṁ149 NO from 16% to 18%

Blaise created limit order for Ṁ40 NO at 50%

Blaise created limit order for Ṁ15 NO at 40% (cancelled)

Blaise filled limit order Ṁ60/Ṁ60 NO at 30%

Blaise bought Ṁ30 NO at 16%

Joel bought Ṁ85 NO from 17% to 16%

belikewater sold Ṁ14 YES from 18% to 17%

Odoacre bought Ṁ20 YES from 17% to 18%

nickten sold Ṁ8 YES at 17%

malcmur sold Ṁ4 YES from 18% to 17%

Charlie bought Ṁ10 YES from 17% to 18%

Gigacasting created limit order for Ṁ24 YES at 12% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ95/Ṁ100 NO at 17% (cancelled)

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