Will the LK-99 room temp superconductivity pre-print replicate in 2023 | Manifold

Will the LK-99 room temp superconductivity pre-print replicate in 2023

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Shorter term version of /QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre and will r solve similarly unless there are gross irregularities

Preprint here:

https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008

Companion paper here with description of synthesis:

https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037

Superconductor Pb$_{10-x}$Cu$_x$(PO$_4$)$_{6O}$ showing levitation at room temperature and atmospheric pressure and mechanism

A material called LK-99, a modified-lead apatite crystal structure with the composition Pb$_{10-x}$Cu$_x$(PO$_4$)$_{6O}$ ($0.9<x<1.1$), has been synthesized using the solid-state method. The material exhibits the Ohmic metal characteristic of Pb(6s1) above its superconducting critical temperature, $…

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Here’s a market conditional on this one. In case that’s of interest to anyone: https://manifold.markets/CKLorentzen/if-it-replicates-in-2023-will-a-rep?r=Q0tMb3JlbnR6ZW4

If it replicates in 2023, will a reputable LK-99 replication later be found to be spurious?

34% chance. Conditional on LK-99 findings being replicated, will a reputable replication later be found to have been spurious? Resolves N/A if there are no replications in 2023. Resolves NO if there are replication(s) in 2023, but none are found to be spurious. Resolves YES if there are replicati…

Apparently it has been replicated by an individual and meissner confirmed. So we keep waiting I guess. I got this off y combinator hacker new site

https://nitter.net/iris_igb/status/1685341730902577153#m

This is an exact arbitrage of /QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre with a different duration, right? So if it resolves YES or NO, you'll mirror the resolution on your markets?

predictedNO

@Mira yes unless there is some really serious malfeasance I will just reflect @QuantumObserver 's judgment

/StrayClimb/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre-d6f8357bb625

/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

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