Shorter term version of /QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre and will r solve similarly unless there are gross irregularities

Preprint here:

https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008

Companion paper here with description of synthesis:

## Related questions

# 🏅 Top traders

# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|

1 | Ṁ2,631 | |

2 | Ṁ1,364 | |

3 | Ṁ1,105 | |

4 | Ṁ598 | |

5 | Ṁ504 |

Here’s a market conditional on this one. In case that’s of interest to anyone: https://manifold.markets/CKLorentzen/if-it-replicates-in-2023-will-a-rep?r=Q0tMb3JlbnR6ZW4

Apparently it has been replicated by an individual and meissner confirmed. So we keep waiting I guess. I got this off y combinator hacker new site

This is an exact arbitrage of /QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre with a different duration, right? So if it resolves YES or NO, you'll mirror the resolution on your markets?

@Mira yes unless there is some really serious malfeasance I will just reflect @QuantumObserver 's judgment