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one more hour ⏰
Get your redemption on the sequel: /strutheo/will-nikki-haley-overtake-and-lead-ece08305ab5a

😢

while we wait for the final results, here is how the sausage is made: https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=104546697

@strutheo This really is tight. What fivethirtyeight.com timestamp will you consider?

@LeonardoKr i'll go off the website as soon as the market closes

@strutheo like in you prioritize your sleep before our amusement? 😬

@LeonardoKr haha you think i sleep that early :P

@strutheo they say it's important for longevity. I guess these nail biter markets might have the opposite effect

While we are waiting, this Haley market has an amazing automated banner, because the generator scraped content from an influencer called Haley Pham whose video "I became a chess prodigy" has some 5 skillion views.

@ClubmasterTransparent Haley is way closer than the market lets on. Great opportunity to leverage.

This coming from the guy that lost a quarter of his mana on this market.

@AaronBailey usually, Manifold undercounts everything that sincere, smart guys in their 20s and 30s don't think is serious. TSwift, TikTok, and I'm starting to think maybe Star Trek relative to MCU.

Without a doubt this is Peak Nik. Never again can we expect so many eyes on this person.

OK I thought the same about Donald Trump in 1994 and I wish I still had that blue colorblock rugby jersey I bought at the Taj in AC with my $50 winnings, but this time I'm right.

(Ruggers: it was a seriously solid heavy cotton jersey with rubber buttons, you could have worn it to play, that's how great it was.)

Soggy Ronny being smoked Badly by Haley! Sad!

It’s crazy if you look at the polls they’re polling from it goes back and forth.

Love these types of super close markets. High drama!

Completely rekt barring a miracle

@AaronBailey Yeah I expect to lose mana here but I feel like gambling

@AaronBailey redemption chance! -> https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-nikki-haley-overtake-and-lead-ece08305ab5a

/strutheo/will-nikki-haley-overtake-and-lead-ece08305ab5a

@Joshua Should I just rip another 100 mana into no? Change my username to riskybisket

@AaronBailey With your networth, no. Keep it for other markets.

@AaronBailey 95% seems reasonable to me. We're betting on whether Haley rolls a natural 1 or not.

Doubling down. Let's win

Was

• Trump62.8%

• Haley11.9%

• DeSantis11.8%
  

  Now
  Trump63.1%

• Haley11.9%

• DeSantis11.6%

  
  So has been an update. Will there be more updates? Safer with a .3% lead than a .1% lead anyway

@ChristopherRandles oh wow, let us off this crazy ride FiveThirtyEight

anyone have any datapoints on if 538 will drop more polls today?

If not…I’m rekt lol

@AaronBailey nobody knows, but i will be waiting very late for you!

@AaronBailey there's been another update sir