Will the president of Harvard, Claudine Gay, resign over the congressional hearings?
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resolved Jan 2
Resolved
YES

Within 30 days. UPenn president resigned today.

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predicted NO

Little confused here, how did I lose despite getting it right?

predicted NO

@JayeshChatlani Nvm apparently it registered as no. Rip for me

sold Ṁ487 of YES
predicted YES

"Amidst all of this, it has been distressing to have doubt cast on my commitments to confronting hate and to upholding scholarly rigor—two bedrock values that are fundamental to who I am—and frightening to be subjected to personal attacks and threats fueled by racial animus."

predicted YES

"These last weeks have helped make clear the work we need to do to build that future—to combat bias and hate in all its forms, to create a learning environment in which we respect each other’s dignity and treat one another with compassion, and to affirm our enduring commitment to open inquiry and free expression in the pursuit of truth."

sold Ṁ118 of NO

@nelsonbj She mentions "confronting hate" as one of the things cast doubt on; that's a yes. @Shump

bought Ṁ1 of YES

Yeah seems clearly referencing the hearings over antisemitism to me.

sold Ṁ0 of NO

@Joshua It’s a garbage statement and it’s awfully vague but I agree.

bought Ṁ9,000 of YES

@NicoDelon Yeah it's not GOOD but the hearings are the only thing they could mean by that.

bought Ṁ75 of NO

Not gonna go hog wild but I do think there's a substantial chance that neither her nor the university blame the hearings, purely for academic diplomacy reasons. But they will say something.

Okay this will resolve YES once the actual resignation comes out, as long as the statements from her or the university either mention the response to antisemitism or don't give any causes. If there's no causes cited, I think we can assume that part of it was the congressional hearings.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@Shump Wait what if she says she's stepping down to spend time with her family or something? Or if she just says she's lost the trust of the faculty, or that it's for "the health of the university" or something vague like that?

@Joshua Valid. I was thinking more about how if the statements only mention plagiarism, then it's not about the antisemitism stuff. Not sure how to operationalize this then. If I can't figure something out, I will judge based on media reports.

bought Ṁ2 of NO

@Shump If the statements mention reasons and those reasons have nothing to do with the hearing then this should not resolve YES IMO.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

@Shump Well the Crimson is definitely citing the congressional hearings as part of it, though in combination with the plagiarism of course:

Probably not too much point speculating before her email comes out, but I think the hearings were clearly a "Significant Factor" in her resignation.

13 minutes ago in threads - yes President Gay will be resigning

https://www.threads.net/@bostonglobe/post/C1m45ecg28n/

predicted YES

"Gay’s resignation — just six months and two days into the presidency — comes amid growing allegations of plagiarism and lasting doubts over her ability to respond to antisemitism on campus after her disastrous congressional testimony Dec. 5."

predicted YES

"The Corporation — the University’s highest governing body — is expected to announce the resignation to Harvard affiliates in an email later today. Gay is also expected to make a statement about the decision."

you could argue it is not "over the congressional hearings"

predicted NO

@KevinBurke +1. She may have resigned over the plagiarism accusations even if she had never testified before congress. (I think it played a role though.)

bought Ṁ500 of YES

Uhhhh I really think without any criteria that this resolves yes. This wouldn't have happened without the hearings. @Shump you online to weigh in?

bought Ṁ5 of NO

Did she resign over the hearings and/or the plagiarism?

bought Ṁ250 of YES

resolves yes, she just resigned today