1,000
3.00The Turkish Parliament's Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday approved Sweden’s accession to NATO, a prerequisite for the issue to be considered by a full parliamentary vote.
The accession protocol will be voted on by the full parliament once Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus schedules a debate on the matter, though at the time of this writing, no timeframe has been set.
lol i haven't been watching this at all but caught someone spiking it up and bought some no, and wanted to try quickly selling my no, but clearly i shouldn't
@NicoDelon I don't see what's different than their previous non-timetables, but I can see how 10% was temptingly low. The conventional wisdom that the US needs to give them F-16s before they'll move hasn't changed though.
Regarding the recent developments, I'm uncertain about their potential impact on the ongoing process. However, if there is any effect, it's likely to be negative. Recent news reports indicate that the Swedish right-wing is advocating for halting the construction of new mosques and even the demolition of existing ones. This news has gained attention in Turkish media as well. This situation echoes a previous incident where a life-sized effigy of President Erdogan was displayed in a demeaning manner in central Stockholm.
(This highlights how easily the ratification process can be influenced or derailed by domestic events, particularly the opinions expressed by individuals.)
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Turkey tells NATO that Sweden won't join by next week's meeting -sources | Reuters
This isn't happening. Turkey has no reason to let go its veto leverage over some promises made by Sweden that it knows won't be followed through by the Swedes. (everything regarding PKK)
@eosayin I agree. It's no done deal yet. Somewhere there is likely a tipping point where the reputation of Turkey takes a hit internationally in regards to being seen as untrustworthy. Handshakes in front of cameras - only to backtrack a few days or weeks later and demanding more.
https://apnews.com/article/turkey-sweden-nato-committee-approval-2a4f8e4d162e040cd69b4738eea9c3fd
Given the wording here, we are seeing another delay of at least a few weeks for a new Turkish session plus a Hungarian followup.
@Panfilo They’re just trolling at this point and it’s very funny to see intelligent people fall for it.
@Panfilo Maybe they're just considerate towards the Hungarians and want to allow them a chance to not be the last, lol.
@Panfilo For us who have followed this debacle since the start, there is nothing surprising about this. I still don't think it's impossible but 25% -ish should probably be closer to the truth.
@Panfilo Huh wow imagine that look at all of that none probability mass my dominant hypothesis just lost.
The prospect of Sweden joining NATO before 2024 is subject to extensive debate and varying viewpoints. Key developments include Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan signing of the protocol for Sweden's NATO accession, which now awaits the Turkish parliament's approval. Considering Erdogan's strong influence in politics, the likelihood of the Turkish parliament approving Sweden's accession appears quite low. However, there are hurdles, notably Turkey and Hungary's expressed reservations, with Turkish President Erdogan's position being a focal point of contention. The U.S. has emphasized the strategic importance of expediting Sweden's membership, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin advocating for a "sooner rather than later" approach.
There is likely a negotiation process underway between Turkey and the United States, and Erdogan's approval indicates that the negotiations are in the final stages
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/11/why-turkey-changed-its-stance-on-swedens-nato-membership-2
https://www.axios.com/2023/06/15/sweden-nato-turkey-jeff-flake
https://www.reuters.com/world/turkeys-erdogan-submits-swedens-nato-bid-parliament-ratification-presidency-2023-10-23/
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4083890-sweden-will-join-nato-but-probably-not-next-week/