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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

This is question #1 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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predicted YES

I did a quick inventory of the "Putin is dead" news. It's not reliable, but it's funny, in a conspiracy theory, QAnon manner. I summarize it here in this post. If you have more of this, I'll be amused.

(1) Putin Is Already Dead? Was He Ill? | Page 3 | The Forteana Forums

predicted YES

There are rumours that Putin had a heart attack. But it's impossible to verify. Here are translations from Czech newspapers:

(1) Putin Is Already Dead? Was He Ill? | Page 2 | The Forteana Forums

https://forums.forteana.org/index.php?threads/putin-is-already-dead-was-he-ill.69493/post-2306202

predicted YES

@uair01 again?..

predicted YES

@ICRainbow I'm just quoting recent news articles. I didn't check if it has been reported before. Has it?

If you want you can scroll back in the forum tread that I posted to see more history.

@uair01 Мое сердце каждый день сильно бьется, как барабан. 🥁

predicted NO

Его сердце бьется, как барабан в джунглях.

predicted NO

@CertaintyOfVictory lol what an exchange.

My heart beats like a drum every day. 🥁

and then certainty of victory says

His heart beats like a drum in the jungle.

predicted NO

@uair01 What I think is happening with those rumors is that russian secret services are preparing for a moment when Putin really will be dying. Nobody will trust the message again, when so many times it has been a rumor.

predicted NO

big if true

bought Ṁ100 NO from 96% to 95%

@nickten Огромный, но это неправда. 🐳

predicted YES

@AltPutin I love this account

predicted YES

@nickten I believe the correct term is "healthy at any size"

Кто знает, какая есть альтернатива? Никто на родине не может владеть властью, которой я обладаю, без того, чтобы не сбиться с пути собственного позора. Бог пожелал этого для меня, и в этом Он справедлив. Наш народ увлекается цирками, и я не питаю к этому ни отвращения, ни недоверия. Я единственный, кто может терпеть боль за них. Люди это понимают, они это ценят, они не позволят никому другому быть там, где я, потому что они признают мое высшее видение. 🚶‍♂

predicted NO

@AltPutin Did Putin say that?

predicted YES

@ElmerFudd No, this is parody account.

bought Ṁ272 of YES

A failed coup probably makes the regime even more stable, and Putin still has sky high approval ratings.

predicted YES

@JonathanRay Staged or not, the events will provide a lot of common knowledge for analysts to chew. Who knows what, who supports whom, etc.

Lots of leverage gained by flushing it all out.

predicted YES

@JonathanRay What makes you think his approval didn't change? I haven't seen any data on this metric after the mutiny.

Also, approval in authoritarian countries is very different from approval in democratic ones. Alternative personas, who could try to rival the president, are politically suppressed. So the approval that is measured is mostly passive and arises from lack of political freedom. If an opportunity occurs, this approval would probably plummet.

sold Ṁ622 of YES

Yeah wow the address to the country looked bad.

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