This is question #1 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

Putin reigns with iron fist,

His power seems to persist,

But will he stay or will he go?

Only time will let us know.

The recent arrest warrant for Putin by the International Criminal Court seems due to the administration fumbling some PR related to adoptions of children from the occupied regions. This could be the result of incompetence or indifference, but gives some evidence for (or could cause) maneuvering against him that could be successful during this year.

Think it’s overall a small update, and this market could have been too high already, but I’d expect some movement.

Last year I thought markets were too confident Putin would keep power. This year I think this is not confident enough and Metaculus is more accurate at 90%. Metaculus is also doing a better job adjusting as time passes. Things seem to be stabilizing, and every day without big bad news is good news for Putin here on multiple levels. I bought M500 of YES shares, which moved this to 86%.

Why are people so negative here. Putin really has lasted a long time, maybe this is his biggest crisis, but 15% seems high.

@NathanpmYoung Is it though? If we model Putin's reign as a Poisson point process, 15% means he has 3.37 years to remain in power, on average.

@Preen You're right, it is 5.666... (=1/0.15 - 1). I foolishly solved the CDF of the Poission distribution. The mean of the point process is indeed longer.

@Sophia I guess you got that by solving the equation (1-0.15)^x = 0.5. That gives the time from now until he has 50% chance of remaining president, assuming it doesn't happen earlier. Not quite the same as the mean number of years.

@Sophia Median should be 4 years. Point is that 12-13% is not that high as @NathanpmYoung implies. There are rumors of Putin's diminishing health. Also, the situation in Moscow is strained due to the complete failure in the Ukraine war. The effect of sanctions will only increase with time. A power struggle can break out at any moment.

@NathanpmYoung 5% chance of him having a heart attack and 10% chance of the Dance of the Sugar Plum Fairy doesn't seem that crazy to me honestly