1. Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2023?
Dec 31

This is question #1 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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uair01 avatar
uair01predicts YES

I did a quick inventory of the "Putin is dead" news. It's not reliable, but it's funny, in a conspiracy theory, QAnon manner. I summarize it here in this post. If you have more of this, I'll be amused.

(1) Putin Is Already Dead? Was He Ill? | Page 3 | The Forteana Forums

uair01 avatar
uair01predicts YES

There are rumours that Putin had a heart attack. But it's impossible to verify. Here are translations from Czech newspapers:

(1) Putin Is Already Dead? Was He Ill? | Page 2 | The Forteana Forums


ICRainbow avatar
IC Rainbowpredicts YES

@uair01 again?..

uair01 avatar
uair01predicts YES

@ICRainbow I'm just quoting recent news articles. I didn't check if it has been reported before. Has it?

If you want you can scroll back in the forum tread that I posted to see more history.

AltPutin avatar

@uair01 Мое сердце каждый день сильно бьется, как барабан. 🥁

CertaintyOfVictory avatar
Certainty of Victorypredicts NO

Его сердце бьется, как барабан в джунглях.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicts NO

@CertaintyOfVictory lol what an exchange.

My heart beats like a drum every day. 🥁

and then certainty of victory says

His heart beats like a drum in the jungle.

HanchiSun avatar
Hanchi Sun
Comment hidden
nickten avatar
nickten 💙💦🐬predicts NO

big if true

justifieduseofFallibilism avatar
Timothy Currie bought Ṁ100 NO from 96% to 95%
AltPutin avatar

@nickten Огромный, но это неправда. 🐳

Haws avatar
Hawspredicts YES

@AltPutin I love this account

NickAllen avatar
Nick Allenpredicts YES

@nickten I believe the correct term is "healthy at any size"

firstuserhere avatar
AltPutin avatar

Кто знает, какая есть альтернатива? Никто на родине не может владеть властью, которой я обладаю, без того, чтобы не сбиться с пути собственного позора. Бог пожелал этого для меня, и в этом Он справедлив. Наш народ увлекается цирками, и я не питаю к этому ни отвращения, ни недоверия. Я единственный, кто может терпеть боль за них. Люди это понимают, они это ценят, они не позволят никому другому быть там, где я, потому что они признают мое высшее видение. 🚶‍♂

ElmerFudd avatar
Versace Armanipredicts NO

@AltPutin Did Putin say that?

uhbif19 avatar
Grigorii Gerasevpredicts YES

@ElmerFudd No, this is parody account.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Raybought Ṁ272 of YES

A failed coup probably makes the regime even more stable, and Putin still has sky high approval ratings.

ICRainbow avatar
IC Rainbowpredicts YES

@JonathanRay Staged or not, the events will provide a lot of common knowledge for analysts to chew. Who knows what, who supports whom, etc.

Lots of leverage gained by flushing it all out.

Inosen_Infinity avatar
Ivan Zagrebinpredicts YES

@JonathanRay What makes you think his approval didn't change? I haven't seen any data on this metric after the mutiny.

Also, approval in authoritarian countries is very different from approval in democratic ones. Alternative personas, who could try to rival the president, are politically suppressed. So the approval that is measured is mostly passive and arises from lack of political freedom. If an opportunity occurs, this approval would probably plummet.

AndrewG avatar
Andrew Gsold Ṁ622 of YES

Yeah wow the address to the country looked bad.

ElliotDavies avatar
Elliot Daviessold Ṁ107 of NO

Talks of a successful negotiation seems like a big update

ElliotDavies avatar
Elliot Davies

@ElliotDavies "❗️ Nothing is over yet. Make no mistake, just wait." From Prigozhin's telegram

Schwabilismus avatar
Schwabilismussold Ṁ651 of YES

@ElliotDavies Could you link Prigozhin telegram?

ElliotDavies avatar
Elliot Davies

@Schwabilismus absolutely

Edit: removed link

SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalrypredicts YES

@ElliotDavies This is a fake account

VacekNules avatar
Vacek Nules

@SemioticRivalry No, it’s not, putinist services are simply attempting to silence it by mass reporting. Stop spreading putinist propaganda, you vatnik!

VacekNules avatar
Vacek Nules

@ElliotDavies Reinstate your link, rest assured. @Semiotic Rivalry is a vatnik troll with his head in putin’s ass!