Will DeSantis be the #2 polling candidate nationally the day before the Iowa caucuses?
resolved Jan 15

This market will resolve based solely on the FiveThirtyEight "Who's Ahead in National Polls" chart. Specifically, I will check the page at 9pm eastern the day before the caucus, and resolve based on the average listed there at that time, if there is a section called "Average as of today". If the section is titled "Average as of yesterday" or similar, I will check the "Average as of yesterday" on the morning of the caucus. In other cases, I will do my best to use the chart to estimate the averages on the evening before the caucus.

DeSantis is currently in second place. Will he still be in second place right before the first caucuses?

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predicted NO

I think this got resolved incorrectly?

Edit: Just noticed the 9pm EST deadline. Wow, I never would have thought it came down to a difference of a couple hours. I guess this resolved correctly then.

predicted YES

Wow, what a wild result

predicted YES

@AndrewG really glad I defined a specific time in the description!

bought Ṁ350 of NO

Awww no. I exited Yes to go into No without reading the 9PM Eastern detail. Lmao

So this showed Desantis ahead at 9 PM EST, and then the new polls were added an hour ago that put Haley ahead? Real photo finish, wow.


predicted YES

@Joshua FiveThirtyEight almost never update their tracker on weekends, probably because they don't work weekends. I wonder why an employee got into the office on a Sunday Evening.

@Shump Clearly someone here is G Elliot Morris

bought Ṁ900 of YES

The new polls were added at 9:46 pm. Should resolve YES

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Curious to know why @Shump isn't buying the other market down much lower!

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Panfilo one day difference in resolution time?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

DeSantis is currently #2 according to the resolution criteria, unless I misunderstand it. I don't understand how this market has him so low prob. Seems like free returns?

sold Ṁ153 of YES

@AndrewBrown He's neck-and-neck with Haley, and the caucus isn't for another 10 days - ample time for them to trade places

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predicted YES

UPDATED DEC. 16, 2023, AT 3:10 PM

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