The McLaren-Honda MP4/4 won 94% (15 out of 16) of the races in the 1988 season, a record which still stands today. But so far, the Red Bull RB19 has won all 8 races in 2023. Can they top the almighty MP4/4? This would require not losing more than one race this year.
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Based on 19 of 20 races won this year (19/20)^2 is near 90%.
Max Verstappen chances in last 2 races 83% * 84% = 70% and then if Max doesn't win then Perez may have some chance to add to that.
Max has won 17 of 20 =85% If people think his chances are 90% but don't want to place too much mana on him winning because something might happen and others may beat them to trading on it, then I can imagine there is a bit of a 50% bias. So are the 83% and 84% chances of winning last two races understated? That seems possible to me. If so, this would also apply here but less so as already nearer 50% so it applies more equally to the two sides.
Anyway, current 61% looks low to me.
@ChristopherRandles Something (perhaps irrationally) tells me that there's a reasonable chance that RB could have another 'Singapore' in the final two races.. LV is a street circuit, both are night races, lots of slow corners...
@lcar I think I largely agree. However, I think red bull is fine with lots of slow corners and also with lots of fast corners. The 'problem' they have is low tyre degradation as the car is so easy on the tyres. A great problem to have unless you get a street circuit that is a mix of straights and 90% corners when they can have trouble getting the tyres to appropriate temperature to work because the car is so easy on the tyres.
Whether they will have such trouble in Las Vegas or Abu Dhabi I don't know but the remaining two tracks do seem to have a mix of straights and 90 degree corners.
@ChristopherRandles I think it's mostly because of the entire weekend performance in Singapore, and the loss giving Max no cushion for this to resolve YES (I also haven't updated since the last race so I just sold some NO). Of course, there is still the unknown of the brand new Las Vegas street circuit which no one will have raced before except for in sims (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P6eQ4a_13E). The other circuits should be easy wins for Max if there aren't any setup/reliability problems. Hopefully we shouldn't have the tire restrictions that we had in Qatar in Abu Dhabi, it being cooler in late November, so that should reduce the chance of a mix-up in the last race.
@ChristopherRandles Max seems to reliably trade at around 80% for race wins at the remaining races, not 95%, so that’s what I’m operating with. Checo seems so far off the pace these days that his p(win) is probably close to negligible atm
@AshleyMathew we agree with this comment, The numbers don't lie .as Red Bull drivers have won the first in 15 of the 16 races this season, with Verstappen winning 13 of those races alone, He also won 10 consecutive races from Miami in May to Monza in September, breaking Sebastian Vettel's record of nine consecutive wins, The team has also scored 11 pole positions and 10 fastest laps, and has won all three sprint races to date. The RB19 has been compared to some of the sport's historical greats, with Straw comparing it to Ferrari's F2002, Mercedes' W11 and McLaren's MP4/4, which went on to win 15 of 16 races.
@AshleyMathew The RB19 is undoubtedly one of the best cars an F1 track has seen. Its record of 16 wins out of 17 so far is up there with the best-performing cars of the last 40 years, however, to crown the RB19 the most dominant car of all time would be a misnomer, simply because there are likely to be significant improvements/modifications made to the cars in the next couple of years as technology advances. Additionally, there are 5 more races to be run before it can be crowned that.
In truth, there is no significant difference between the performance of the 1988 MP4/4 and the RB19 - both had approximately 94% win rates after 16 and 17 races respectively. There are a variety of other factors that would need to be considered for this - the driver for example. While both cars had successful drivers at the helm, the RB19 is being currently driven by the overwhelming champion of last year.
In essence, domination is subjective. 'All time' would be ignorant of the many technological developments that have seen cars consistently modified year after year to give drivers an edge.
After reading a couple of articles there are apparently two theories explaining RBs terrible performance so far in Singapore: the first theory: ride height requirements specific to Singapore and subsequent adjustments prior to qualifying (only might affect Singapore performance), and the second theory: new regulations regarding flexing parts that went into effect (that will also likely affect the Japanese Grand Prix also) … if it turns out it is the latter I probably should bet this market down more…
Edit: related, but they have to win every race.
https://manifold.markets/YannickMuhlhauser/will-redbull-win-every-race-of-the
