While hosting Bill Gates today, his first meeting with an American this year, Xi showed a very different posture toward the US generally that I found almost shocking. It was so counter to everything he has done since the beginning of Covid it feels like a genuine rapproachement. From Reuters:
"I often say the foundation of U.S.-China relations lies with its people. I place my hopes on the American people," a video published by state broadcaster CCTV showed Xi as saying.
"With the current global situation, we can carry out various activities beneficial to our two countries and people, activities that benefit humanity as a whole," he said.
Gates, who arrived in Beijing on Wednesday, said he was "honoured" to have the chance to meet. "We've always had great conversations and we'll have lot of important topics to discuss today ... it's very exciting to be back."
Xi also discussed the global rise of artificial intelligence (AI) with Bill Gates and said he welcomed U.S. firms including Microsoft bringing their AI tech to China, two sources familiar with the talks said.
This resolves YES if Xi follows up this visit by Gates to Beijing with a visit to Redmond to visit Microsoft, as no doubt Gates extended the invitation.
All US visits count. Everyone who bet on either side gets 100 mana tip if the exact story in the description plays out.
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There might not be an existing manifold etiquette for this kind of comment, but I'd sort of like to point out, as a post-mortem, that I think all of this movement in the blue ring was basically nonsense. There weren't any triggers for it, and all the people who thought Xi was coming at the beginning of the month held that opinion right through until it was announced by Beijing last week.
(Not at all saying it was certain that he would, I think there were real ways that it might have fallen apart, but this market was either over-sensitive to them or just responding to different things I couldn't see)
@JoshuaWilkes I really like reading post-mortems from top traders, I appreciate you writing this up!
Understood.
@JimAusman Just the US. I will payout everyone if the story happens the way I wrote in the description.
Xi Jinping's potential visit to the U.S. by the end of 2023 could be influenced by factors such as diplomatic tensions, scheduling conflicts, pandemic-related restrictions, political issues, or trade negotiations. The specific reason would depend on the evolving circumstances and priorities of both countries at the time.
@Ledger Nah, ASEAN is still happening and he would typically go. If anything the Israel situation might make it even more vital that they meet finally. They haven’t spoken yet this year.
@BTE well yes, I only left about 2 percentage points difference (which seem to be gone now). But I still wanted to ask, because normally when I think I've spotted a great opportunity it turns out I've made a mistake and there was a reason nobody picked it up before me!
@Fion resolves in 3 months, no big benefit in correcting the small difference in the markets to the % of the other. How high would you bet on a question that resolves yes in 3 months? Maybe I should make a market like that. Or does it already exists?
@ChameLeon oh here it is. Do you think it's correctly valued? https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-eaedc5ce14e0
@ChameLeon when I got to it the difference was over 20 points! From looking through the trade history it seems it's just because one person on the other market made one big trade and I came along at the right time. (I probably should have checked the history before asking here I suppose...)
@ChameLeon yeah, that market seems a reasonable price to me. For most of 2023 I've been trading in a handful of markets that are basically dead certs, and as we get closer to the end of the year I bet a bit more. For some reason not many other people have been interested, either because the interest rate is too low for them or because they're unaware of them I suppose. I'm currently at about 1% with most of those markets. Sometimes I add more mana if I've got more than I know what to do with. It all comes back as loans soon enough anyway!
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@Charlie Yes I should have had a better title on this question. I suspect many people bet without reading the entire description so I feel like I need to ask for some feedback before deciding.
@BTE honestly I read the description and still assumed that it would resolve YES if Xi goes to the US and didn't meet with Gates
@JoshuaWilkes the description goes so far 'beyond' the title that I thought it was just an example of the kind of visit to the US Xi might make