๐ ๐บ๐ธ What will the voter turnout be if Trump wins?
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แน300Nov 6
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1W
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50%
Trump doesn't win
37%
<= 49% voter turnout, Trump wins
37%
>= 50% voter turnout , Trump wins
37%
<= 55% voter turnout, , Trump wins
37%
>= 60% voter turnout, , Trump wins
37%
<= 67% voter turnout, Trump wins
37%
>= 74% voter turnout, Trump wins
Voter turnout in the 2020 US presidential election was the highest it has been in any presidential election since the 19th century. Even still, more people didn't vote than voted for Trump (81 million). Thus, as we predict "who will win the electoral college" and "who will win the popular vote", we're also implicitly predicting who will vote.
Can Manifold select the voter turnout % that will play out if Trump wins the election?
What about the voter turnout % that will play out if Biden wins?
Note: options are independent, because turnout could resolve to multiple (eg less than 49% and less than 55%), even though some options are mutually exclusive, for example if Trump DOESNโT win, all other options resolve NO.
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