🫏🐘 What will happen depending on if Dems/Trump win the 2024 election? [ADD RESPONSES]
🫏🐘 What will happen depending on if Dems/Trump win the 2024 election? [ADD RESPONSES]
41
3.9kαΉ€6173
2029
95%
If Trump wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term
94%
If Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term
90%
If Trump wins, will the USA conduct mass deportations before end of his term
79%
If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT go to prison before the end of his life
77%
If Trump wins, Biden will die before the end of Trump's term
76%
If Trump wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term
75%
If Trump Wins, he will be impeached again before the end of his life
73%
If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report he has attempted to pass legislation to increase presidential term limits (i.e. >2 terms) before Inauguration Day 2029
52%
If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report that 1,000,000+ undocumented immigrants have been deported during 2025
46%
If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of either of their lives
42%
If Trump wins, will the USA pass Ukraine aid at least once in his term
34%
If Trump Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life
33%
If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term
32%
If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] will be censored, prosecuted, nationalized, shut down, or prevented by government action from operating freely & openly in the US.
31%
If Trump wins, Hillary Clinton will be charged with a crime before the end of her life
26%
If Trump Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term
23%
If Trump wins, Trump will die before the end of his term
20%
If Trump wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)
17%
If Trump wins, Russia attacks Poland
12%
If Trump wins , the USA will leave NATO before the end of his term

Rules (work in progress)

  • If Trump wins, all the 'If Biden Wins' options will be NAed, and visa versa
    If Trump wins, all the 'Biden will win' options will be resolved NO, and visa versa

  • If Trump or Biden die, their options will be NAed or changed to 'if Dems win' / 'if Reps win' depending on my judgement

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1mo

@strutheo this option still needs to be N/A'd

bought αΉ€100 YES3mo

@strutheo that's already a yes

sold αΉ€11 YES5mo

The Biden ones can be n/aed

4mo

@mods na this? maybe i can make one 'guilty of another crime after he gets in office' ?

10mo

what's the reason for n/aing it?

I don't want to confuse people who are betting on the crime he is already convicted of

I would assume this now refers to a new crime after he gets elected

reposted 11mo

upgraded to basic

reposted 1y

Bump

1y
1y

@strutheo starting now or when they take the office?

1y

@Weezing when they win the election - so if trump wins, all the IF BIDEN/DEMS WIN questions will resolve NA

A two-thirds vote in Senate is CURRENTLY needed for this to be legal. For practical purposes this option is a vote on to what extent Trump would respect the law during a second presidency. It’s clear he wants to ignore NATO which in effect would be leaving it.

1y

@ClubmasterTransparent whats something more fun. like trump reducing funding to nato? can he do that or is it congress

@strutheo I think it’s plenty fun the way it is. I suppose it could be β€œattempt to leave NATO”. For all we know he might think all he has to do is say three times β€œI divorce you.”

bought αΉ€100 YES1y

When do these resolve? for example "If Biden wins, we'll go to war in Ukraine". If that isn't happening, does it resolve when the war ends, at the end of Biden's 2nd term, etc?

1y

@NathanScott hm good question , i meant by the time he leaves office for most of these, ill add text

1y

A blockade is generally considered an act of war, will it be considered an 'attack'?

1y

@DavidFWatson ill add it

bought αΉ€10 YES1y

@strutheo Should be fine, although I'm hopeful that we don't find ourselves discussing whether "food is allowed, but not enough to prevent starvation" is covered

In fact, "shipping blockade from all non-chinese ports" would be maybe not a "full blockade"

β€œPeace settlement” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in this sentence.

1y

@ClubmasterTransparent hmm have a better wording? i meant basically - the war is over, borders agreed upon.

@strutheo Maybe a split into several options? Ukraine surrenders v. Russia retreats and agrees 2022 border v Russia retreats and agrees 2014 border.

1y

@ClubmasterTransparent you can keep adding any you like, i made those clearer

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