MANIFOLD
🫏🐘 What will happen depending on if Dems/Trump win the 2024 election? [ADD RESPONSES]
47
αΉ€3.9kαΉ€7.8k
2029
79%
If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT go to prison before the end of his life
75%
If Trump Wins, he will be impeached again before the end of his life
64%
If Trump wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term
63%
If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report he has attempted to pass legislation to increase presidential term limits (i.e. >2 terms) before Inauguration Day 2029
44%
If Trump Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life
44%
If Trump wins, Biden will die before the end of Trump's term
33%
If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term
31%
If Trump wins, Hillary Clinton will be charged with a crime before the end of her life
30%
If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report that 1,000,000+ undocumented immigrants have been deported during 2025
29%
If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of either of their lives
26%
If Trump Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term
20%
If Trump wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)
20%
If Trump wins, Trump will die before the end of his term
19%
If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] will be censored, prosecuted, nationalized, shut down, or prevented by government action from operating freely & openly in the US.
17%
If Trump wins, Russia attacks Poland
15%
If Trump wins , the USA will leave NATO before the end of his term
6%
If Trump wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term
Resolved
YES
If Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term
Resolved
YES
If Trump wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term
Resolved
YES
If Trump wins, will the USA pass Ukraine aid at least once in his term

Rules (work in progress)

  • If Trump wins, all the 'If Biden Wins' options will be NAed, and visa versa
    If Trump wins, all the 'Biden will win' options will be resolved NO, and visa versa

  • If Trump or Biden die, their options will be NAed or changed to 'if Dems win' / 'if Reps win' depending on my judgement

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I haven't seen any reports that would indicate a yes resolution, so I think this can resolve no.

@ChristopherRandles Good point. I don't think so, as deportation is legally considered a formal process to expel someone. With self-deportation (voluntarily leaving), there is no formal deportation order or guarantee that the state would actually be able to obtain such an order.

@solarflare
https://x.com/JDVance/status/2011427960775909717
"This argument is just entirely fake, for two reasons. 1) In the Obama administration, they counted being turned away at the border as a deportation. A person would show up, be sent back, and counted as a deportation. We have to do deportations from the interior of the country because Biden and Harris let them walk in."

I have no idea if that is an accurate indication of a change in the way deportations are counted

@strutheo The NDAA (passed in December) is providing $800 million to Ukraine through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. I believe this should count.

@strutheo How many are needed for it to count as "mass"?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_in_the_second_Trump_administration#Deportation
Deportation

37,660 people were deported in Trump's first month in office, including both removals and returns, far less than the monthly average of 57,000 deportations under Biden in 2024.[161] One of the factors cited to explain the decrease of deportations is a drop in border crossings.[162] An October 27, 2025 DHS press release said that more than 2 million people had been removed from the country, with 527,000 being deported while 1.6 million "voluntarily self-deported"[163][164]

bought αΉ€661 YES

@strutheo happened several times so can resolve yes

Also bitcoin

@strutheo this option still needs to be N/A'd

bought αΉ€100 YES

@strutheo that's already a yes

sold αΉ€11 YES

The Biden ones can be n/aed

@mods na this? maybe i can make one 'guilty of another crime after he gets in office' ?

what's the reason for n/aing it?

I don't want to confuse people who are betting on the crime he is already convicted of

I would assume this now refers to a new crime after he gets elected

reposted

upgraded to basic

reposted

Bump

@strutheo starting now or when they take the office?

@Weezing when they win the election - so if trump wins, all the IF BIDEN/DEMS WIN questions will resolve NA

A two-thirds vote in Senate is CURRENTLY needed for this to be legal. For practical purposes this option is a vote on to what extent Trump would respect the law during a second presidency. It’s clear he wants to ignore NATO which in effect would be leaving it.

@ClubmasterTransparent whats something more fun. like trump reducing funding to nato? can he do that or is it congress

@strutheo I think it’s plenty fun the way it is. I suppose it could be β€œattempt to leave NATO”. For all we know he might think all he has to do is say three times β€œI divorce you.”

bought αΉ€100 YES

When do these resolve? for example "If Biden wins, we'll go to war in Ukraine". If that isn't happening, does it resolve when the war ends, at the end of Biden's 2nd term, etc?

@NathanScott hm good question , i meant by the time he leaves office for most of these, ill add text

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