25
244
αΉ€2.9k
2029
86%
If Biden wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term
83%
If Trump wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term
72%
If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life
63%
If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT go to prison before the end of his life
59%
If Trump wins, will the USA conduct mass deportations before end of his term
58%
If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term
51%
If Trump Wins, he will be impeached again before the end of his life
50%
Biden will win AND Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life
50%
If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report that 1,000,000+ undocumented immigrants have been deported during 2025
48%
If Biden wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term
47%
If Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term
45%
If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of either of their lives
44%
If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will go to prison before the end of his life
44%
If Trump wins, will the USA pass Ukraine aid at least once in his term
41%
If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report he has attempted to pass legislation to increase presidential term limits (i.e. >2 terms) before Inauguration Day 2029
40%
If Joe Biden Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Joe Biden's term
34%
If Trump Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life
34%
If Biden wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term
34%
If Trump wins, Biden will die before the end of Trump's term
34%
If Trump wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

Rules (work in progress)

  • If Trump wins, all the 'If Biden Wins' options will be NAed, and visa versa
    If Trump wins, all the 'Biden will win' options will be resolved NO, and visa versa

  • If Trump or Biden die, their options will be NAed or changed to 'if Dems win' / 'if Reps win' depending on my judgement

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@strutheo starting now or when they take the office?

@Weezing when they win the election - so if trump wins, all the IF BIDEN/DEMS WIN questions will resolve NA

A two-thirds vote in Senate is CURRENTLY needed for this to be legal. For practical purposes this option is a vote on to what extent Trump would respect the law during a second presidency. It’s clear he wants to ignore NATO which in effect would be leaving it.

@ClubmasterTransparent whats something more fun. like trump reducing funding to nato? can he do that or is it congress

@strutheo I think it’s plenty fun the way it is. I suppose it could be β€œattempt to leave NATO”. For all we know he might think all he has to do is say three times β€œI divorce you.”

bought αΉ€100 If Biden wins, the S... YES

When do these resolve? for example "If Biden wins, we'll go to war in Ukraine". If that isn't happening, does it resolve when the war ends, at the end of Biden's 2nd term, etc?

@NathanScott hm good question , i meant by the time he leaves office for most of these, ill add text

A blockade is generally considered an act of war, will it be considered an 'attack'?

@DavidFWatson ill add it

bought αΉ€10 Answer #d94c050db224 YES

@strutheo Should be fine, although I'm hopeful that we don't find ourselves discussing whether "food is allowed, but not enough to prevent starvation" is covered

In fact, "shipping blockade from all non-chinese ports" would be maybe not a "full blockade"

If Trump wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

β€œPeace settlement” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in this sentence.

@ClubmasterTransparent hmm have a better wording? i meant basically - the war is over, borders agreed upon.

@strutheo Maybe a split into several options? Ukraine surrenders v. Russia retreats and agrees 2022 border v Russia retreats and agrees 2014 border.

@ClubmasterTransparent you can keep adding any you like, i made those clearer

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