This market exists for two main reasons: I think a cumulative-independent approach is the most useful format for markets like this, and I also wanted a market where people could directly compare their predictions about Trump's bid to other modern presidential election results.
A combination of the Federal Election Commission's numbers and Dave Leip's numbers will be used to resolve this market. Dave Leip's numbers will be used for the 2024 election.
Note that if it gets close, the answers that refer to a specific candidate should be taken as not the exact number listed in the answer, but the actual percentage of the popular vote that the candidate got in that election - e.g. the Joe Biden answer should not be taken as 51.31% exactly, but instead as the percentage of the vote total he actually got according to the FEC (81,283,501/158,429,631=~51.305744%) or according to Dave Leip's numbers for older elections.
Please ask any questions in the comments if you have any.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ747 | |
| 2 | Ṁ515 | |
| 3 | Ṁ466 | |
| 4 | Ṁ308 | |
| 5 | Ṁ214 |
People are also trading
@polymathematic @MikeChenSF Pinging using @creator doesn't actually work right now, I'll resolve but pinging @Tripping again first in case they want to resolve
@creator can the final options resolve now that the vote has been officially certified by congress? Dave Leip's site hasn't changed its numbers for several weeks now, so I believe they are final.
I've got Trump 2024 at 49.7167% according to Leip and Kennedy 1960 at 49.7163%. Does that match what you're planning to go by, @Tripping?
@Tripping Will all be resolved at the same time or will you resolve the extreme ones (that are already guaranteed or impossible) earlier?
Related market: https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/what-will-trumps-vote-share-be-in-t-eb4aaf710cc0
Trump 50-60 seems pretty undervalued there in comparison.