Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.
Resolves early if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.
This question has a list of 10 current candidates, and resolves to "Someone else" if the winner is anyone else.
Newer market here if you want more options: https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
Related questions
According to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, Trump is now favored 51-42 in a direct matchup against Biden. How this makes sense, I don't know - so make of it what you will.
1230a3PresidentialPolitics.pdf (langerresearch.com)
@Symmetry Unaggregated general election polls >1 year out from the election have basically no predictive ability.
Harris is ridiculously undervalued here. She's the sitting VP and the time is rapidly running out for her to be replaced on the top of the ticket.
@GeorgePurcell Why? The odds of Biden dying or having to drop out in the next 14 months are less than 10%. Harris would be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in that case but not guaranteed, and then she would maybe have a 50% chance of winning the general election.
@MatthewLichti She also would have a much tougher path than Biden, since she’s quite unpopular, and a woman of color to boot.
@Gabrielle Yes, I think giving her 50% odds in the general election is overly optimistic. That also means she would likely face primary competition if Biden died or was incapacitated before the primaries kick off in February. I think 4% is fair or maybe even a bit high.
@GeorgePurcell I think people are undervaluing the bounce Harris would likely get if Biden died very close to the election.
Ramaswamy is vastly undervalued here simply based upon his polls.
The guy is in second place to someone who could end up in jail at any time, and he is less than half as old as Biden.
@SteveSokolowski I can think of a few reasons he won't win but I can't imagine his path to victory. He's a child of immigrants running as a MAGA candidate, a nativist movement who's ideological center has been and continues to be The Great Replacement Theory. Ramaswamy seems like a bright guy but he's not a shapeshifter.
@yep Exactly. People who support Trump are attracted to his personality, not anything he actually stands for. Trump convinced Republicans to repudiate most of what they had stood for. Ramaswamy could easily go "viral" with his rapping and then suddenly people would love him. Plus, the two of them actually share a lot of the same policy positions, anyway.
@yep Would be a great twist ending to the series.
@GeorgePurcell I agree that he won't win, but his odds were higher than 1%, and I've already doubled my money.
@IsarBhattacharjee You need to buy the opposite to sell these new multiple choice markets.
@BTE okay cool, I guess the sell button does the same thing on other markets but its not built yet for these
@IsarBhattacharjee Yes, Jack can probably explain in detail, but I think it has something to do with the way they provide liquidity to each option.
Actually the reason is just that this is a new type of market and the sell button is coming soon!
https://manifold.markets/jack/will-manifold-add-a-sell-button-for
Just placed a big order on Trump YES at 23% if anyone wants to take that bet.
