Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
2.3k
23kṀ2.8mresolved Nov 7
100%99.0%
Donald Trump
0.3%
Joe Biden
0.0%
Ron DeSantis
0.1%
Nikki Haley
0.2%
Kamala Harris
0.0%
Tim Scott
0.0%
Mike Pence
0.0%
Chris Christie
0.0%
Vivek Ramaswamy
0.0%
Asa Hutchinson
0.4%
Someone else
Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.
Resolves provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.
This question has a list of 10 current candidates, and resolves to "Someone else" if the winner is anyone else.
I recommend the newer and bigger market here with more options:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.