Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
closes 2025
Joe Biden
Donald Trump
Ron DeSantis
Nikki Haley
Kamala Harris
Tim Scott
Mike Pence
Chris Christie
Vivek Ramaswamy
Asa Hutchinson
Someone else

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.

Resolves early if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.

This question has a list of 10 current candidates, and resolves to "Someone else" if the winner is anyone else.

Newer market here if you want more options: https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Sort by:
Symmetry avatar

According to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, Trump is now favored 51-42 in a direct matchup against Biden. How this makes sense, I don't know - so make of it what you will.

1230a3PresidentialPolitics.pdf (langerresearch.com)

2 replies
BenjaminShindel avatar
Benjamin Shindel

@Symmetry Unaggregated general election polls >1 year out from the election have basically no predictive ability.

Symmetry avatar
BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Baileybought Ṁ65 of Vivek Ramaswamy NO

Arb opportunities here

GeorgePurcell avatar
George Purcellbought Ṁ40 of Kamala Harris YES

Harris is ridiculously undervalued here. She's the sitting VP and the time is rapidly running out for her to be replaced on the top of the ticket.

6 replies
MatthewLichti avatar
Matthew Lichti

@GeorgePurcell Why? The odds of Biden dying or having to drop out in the next 14 months are less than 10%. Harris would be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in that case but not guaranteed, and then she would maybe have a 50% chance of winning the general election.

Gabrielle avatar

@MatthewLichti She also would have a much tougher path than Biden, since she’s quite unpopular, and a woman of color to boot.

MatthewLichti avatar
Matthew Lichti

@Gabrielle Yes, I think giving her 50% odds in the general election is overly optimistic. That also means she would likely face primary competition if Biden died or was incapacitated before the primaries kick off in February. I think 4% is fair or maybe even a bit high.

Jai avatar
Jai D (Jai)

@GeorgePurcell I think people are undervaluing the bounce Harris would likely get if Biden died very close to the election.

nmehndir avatar

@Jai I think people are overvaluing the chances of Biden dying or becoming incapacitated very close to the election.

Jai avatar
Jai D (Jai)

@nmehndir Also true. Are there any conditional-on-Biden-incapacitated markets yet?

SteveSokolowski avatar
Steve Sokolowski

Ramaswamy is vastly undervalued here simply based upon his polls.

The guy is in second place to someone who could end up in jail at any time, and he is less than half as old as Biden.

6 replies
becauseyoudo avatar

@SteveSokolowski I can think of a few reasons he won't win but I can't imagine his path to victory. He's a child of immigrants running as a MAGA candidate, a nativist movement who's ideological center has been and continues to be The Great Replacement Theory. Ramaswamy seems like a bright guy but he's not a shapeshifter.

yep avatar

@marnet I think many/most MAGA voters are not ideologically consistent, and if Trump was exposed to be a black lady with a mask and voice changer, they'd be cheering for their first female president.

SteveSokolowski avatar
Steve Sokolowski

@yep Exactly. People who support Trump are attracted to his personality, not anything he actually stands for. Trump convinced Republicans to repudiate most of what they had stood for. Ramaswamy could easily go "viral" with his rapping and then suddenly people would love him. Plus, the two of them actually share a lot of the same policy positions, anyway.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

@yep Would be a great twist ending to the series.


GeorgePurcell avatar
George Purcell

@SteveSokolowski he has no chance to win the R nomination.

SteveSokolowski avatar
Steve Sokolowski

@GeorgePurcell I agree that he won't win, but his odds were higher than 1%, and I've already doubled my money.

IsarBhattacharjee avatar
Isar Bhattacharjee

Is there a reason I can't sell my position on this?

5 replies
BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@IsarBhattacharjee You need to buy the opposite to sell these new multiple choice markets.

IsarBhattacharjee avatar
Isar Bhattacharjee

@BTE okay cool, I guess the sell button does the same thing on other markets but its not built yet for these

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@IsarBhattacharjee Yes, Jack can probably explain in detail, but I think it has something to do with the way they provide liquidity to each option.

IsarBhattacharjee avatar
Isar Bhattacharjee

@jack makes a lot of sense!

Love the app BTW!

ShadowyZephyr avatar
𝐒𝕙𝕒𝕕𝕠𝕨𝕪𝐙𝕖𝕡𝕙𝕪𝕣bought Ṁ0 of Donald Trump YES

Just placed a big order on Trump YES at 23% if anyone wants to take that bet.