1,000
3.00@Epistemic_Hygiene The creator chose this date to close the market. Normally, creators have full discretion over when to stop trading on a market. Whether the date was an intentional choice to stop trading early (which preserves the creator's capital at risk in the AMM pool), or an oversight, it's hard to say. If @April wants to reopen trading, they are also free to do that.
If you're unhappy with your position in this market, and wish to continue trading, you may be able to find similar action on another existing market, or even make a new one and post it here if you think you can attract someone to trade against.
@Eliza Don’t have an issue per se but seemed odd to close trading several days before the election and was wondering if it was an oversight by the market creator.
@Epistemic_Hygiene in 2023 and before it was quite normal to schedule markets to close before the event they were predicting about. Lots of people thought it was desirable and perhaps made the market and profits made from it 'purer'.
I feel this is no longer the case and it's largely because the post-event camp has grown in strength, maybe because they way manifold is structured means both creators and especially traders can benefit hugely from post-event trading.
@JoshuaWilkes Thanks for the context. But wouldn’t post-event trading still be prevented by having the market close, let’s say, midnight before Election Day? Is the issue that the closer you get to the event trading becomes less about prediction and more about the speed of processing new info?
@Epistemic_Hygiene yeah, I think this isn't clear, and you would perhaps expect it to close as close as possible to the event. We'd have to ask April.
I did experiment with markets that closed very early, for example ahead of the beginning of a sports competition instead of before the final, but they were wildly unpopular.
I believe closing early now usually benefits the market creator since they get refunded most if not all of the remaining liquidity. I think the remaining liquidity is greater if the last price was further from the resolution.
For older markets like this one, Manifold may still be the "owner" of most of the liquidity.
oops, answer found but comment cannot be deleted here.
tempting to just set up a bot to arb this with https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
There are markets that put Trump's chances alone above this. Arbitrage opportunities here
Made the same question but for 2028: https://manifold.markets/nsokolsky/will-either-joe-biden-or-donald-tru-c2c82e411eb7
In the 2024 poll projections, Biden has a marginal lead over Trump, registering at 49% to Trump's 47% among the electorate. (Marist Poll, 2023) Both candidates grapple with favorability concerns, yet Biden enjoys the support of the ascendant Democratic Party. The Quinnipiac survey adds another dimension, revealing that 13% of voters expressing "somewhat" disapproval for Biden would still prefer him over Trump by an 11-point spread. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 2023) This is echoed by the Wall Street Journal, with a pronounced 66% of these voters favoring Biden in a direct matchup, whereas Trump secures a scant 18%. Furthermore, Trump's approval rating is a worrisome 41.5%, significantly lower than that of previous presidents at this point in their second terms. (Morrison, 2023) Trump's situation is made much more difficult by impending legal challenges, such as those pertaining to the Capitol incident on January 6th and the investigation into his financial activities. The odds appear to be stacked against him when you consider additional financial difficulties like growing interest rates and inflation. These figures and allusions suggest that Biden is in a stronger position going into the 2024 race.
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-results/
