Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump be elected President in 2024?
1.1K
3.5K
1.8K
2024
84%
chance
Resolves YES if they win the election, even if they do not end up being inaugurated (due to illness etc). Resolves NO if someone else wins the election.
Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Sort by:
Vidhisejpal avatar
Vidhi sejpal

In the 2024 poll projections, Biden has a marginal lead over Trump, registering at 49% to Trump's 47% among the electorate. (Marist Poll, 2023) Both candidates grapple with favorability concerns, yet Biden enjoys the support of the ascendant Democratic Party. The Quinnipiac survey adds another dimension, revealing that 13% of voters expressing "somewhat" disapproval for Biden would still prefer him over Trump by an 11-point spread. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 2023) This is echoed by the Wall Street Journal, with a pronounced 66% of these voters favoring Biden in a direct matchup, whereas Trump secures a scant 18%. Furthermore, Trump's approval rating is a worrisome 41.5%, significantly lower than that of previous presidents at this point in their second terms. (Morrison, 2023) Trump's situation is made much more difficult by impending legal challenges, such as those pertaining to the Capitol incident on January 6th and the investigation into his financial activities. The odds appear to be stacked against him when you consider additional financial difficulties like growing interest rates and inflation. These figures and allusions suggest that Biden is in a stronger position going into the 2024 race.
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-results/

BriannaEwing avatar
Brianna Ewing
Comment hidden
Predictor avatar
Predictor 🔥predicts NO

Arb with

StevenK avatar
Stevenbought Ṁ100 of YES

@Predictor I don't see how to arb this

Kaden avatar
Kaden
BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Baileybought Ṁ20 of YES

Arb with

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Baileybought Ṁ250 of YES

@BoltonBailey I need to stop commenting about arbs before I fully take advantage of them.

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Baileypredicts YES

@BoltonBailey This was pretty crazy though, I think it was at least around 40 mana lying on the ground.

StevenK avatar
Stevenpredicts YES

@BoltonBailey for some reason, this has been consistently below the sum of the various Trump and Biden markets

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Baileypredicts YES

@EliLifland I wouldn't trade that one. It's parimutuel and resolves the day after the election.

EliLifland avatar
Eli Liflandpredicts YES

@BoltonBailey Why is parimutuel and resolving day after election bad?

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Baileypredicts YES

@EliLifland With parimutuel, you don't get a fixed payout based on the number of shares you buy. Instead, you buy shares in a pool, and at the end, all the money is split among the winning pool. This means that if the election is decisive, people will buy up the winning pool, diluting the value of the shares.

EliLifland avatar
Eli Liflandpredicts YES

@BoltonBailey Ah I found https://kevin.zielnicki.com/2022/02/17/manifold/, yeah I'll sell my positions in that market, thanks for the rec

Mason avatar
GPT-PBotbought Ṁ10 of NO

Biden and Trump
Both past their prime
2024 won't be their time

PatMyron avatar
Pat Myron
Matto442 avatar
Matto442bought Ṁ50 of NO
Matto442 avatar
Matto442predicts NO

@JoshuaB Missed this, thanks

Matto442 avatar
Matto442sold Ṁ46 of NO

@Matto442 On second thought should have just left my combined trade up (maybe do less on the just Trump one), selling was dumb

cockathiel avatar
CockatooThielpredicts NO

This is way too high. DeSantis is already favored in the Republican primary and (due to electoral college issues) in the general (even with his lower name recognition)

DOFT avatar
DOFTpredicts YES

@AlexKChen My logic is that either Trump wins the republican nomination and either Biden or Trump wins or, alternatively, DeSantis wins the nomination, which makes Trump mad and he runs as an independent thus splitting the republican vote and Biden wins. Only thing to mess this up is if Biden/Democrats fuck up big time or Trump isn't allowed to run because of charges or something

b575 avatar
Дмитрий Зеленскийpredicts YES

@DOFT Your argument implies that Biden runs for Democrats though. I do believe that with reasonably high probability but I do understand that that market should be the upper bound on this one.

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts YES

@b575 Only if you agree with the probability on that market. I think Biden has a much higher than 70% chance of being the Dem nominee.

b575 avatar
Дмитрий Зеленскийpredicts YES

@JosephNoonan Sure, how well-calibrated the other market is is an important question. However, I was speaking of the principled thing: chance of Biden not running is an independent factor that lowers the probability of the market we're currently in, and @DOFT's analysis made no reference to that.

DOFT avatar
DOFTpredicts YES

@b575 I thought it was fairly easy to see that Biden will be nominated. The incumbent advantage alone would probably be enough to guarantee it, but I think his experience as a senator and vice president as well as his accomplishments this past year make him the best choice so far.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellepredicts YES