This is way too high. DeSantis is already favored in the Republican primary and (due to electoral college issues) in the general (even with his lower name recognition)
@AlexKChen My logic is that either Trump wins the republican nomination and either Biden or Trump wins or, alternatively, DeSantis wins the nomination, which makes Trump mad and he runs as an independent thus splitting the republican vote and Biden wins. Only thing to mess this up is if Biden/Democrats fuck up big time or Trump isn't allowed to run because of charges or something
@DOFT Your argument implies that Biden runs for Democrats though. I do believe that with reasonably high probability but I do understand that that market should be the upper bound on this one.
@b575 Only if you agree with the probability on that market. I think Biden has a much higher than 70% chance of being the Dem nominee.
@JosephNoonan Sure, how well-calibrated the other market is is an important question. However, I was speaking of the principled thing: chance of Biden not running is an independent factor that lowers the probability of the market we're currently in, and @DOFT's analysis made no reference to that.
@b575 I thought it was fairly easy to see that Biden will be nominated. The incumbent advantage alone would probably be enough to guarantee it, but I think his experience as a senator and vice president as well as his accomplishments this past year make him the best choice so far.
@DOFT I agree - you might want to buy stocks in https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Biden just informally announced his intention to run in 2024, so this should probably bounce a bit higher - unless people are confident enough that DeSantis will be the GOP nominee to cancel that out.
@Forrest This market is now lopsided the other way relative to those markets. Interesting, isn't it? I wonder if it's logically explainable by adding a belief that either of those men is less electable than a replacement candidate, and thus fares worse when not facing the other? I'd have to do some math to figure out how large the magnitude of that presumed effect would have to be to make the current disparity rational given the single-candidate values.
