Created a market for Harris or Trump:

tempting to just set up a bot to arb this with https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964

There are markets that put Trump's chances alone above this. Arbitrage opportunities here

???

Looks like the gap closed.

I am cringing when any of these candidates are speaking. It is embarrassing. Maybe I can make mistakes because I am a nobody, but these are best options for the president of USA? What is going on here?

Made the same question but for 2028: https://manifold.markets/nsokolsky/will-either-joe-biden-or-donald-tru-c2c82e411eb7

@nsokolsky My cat made this same question, but with a third candidate as well

@Tumbles Can't believe people think the probability of @Mira being elected is under 1%.

@DavidBolin -3% as of now.

In the 2024 poll projections, Biden has a marginal lead over Trump, registering at 49% to Trump's 47% among the electorate. (Marist Poll, 2023) Both candidates grapple with favorability concerns, yet Biden enjoys the support of the ascendant Democratic Party. The Quinnipiac survey adds another dimension, revealing that 13% of voters expressing "somewhat" disapproval for Biden would still prefer him over Trump by an 11-point spread. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 2023) This is echoed by the Wall Street Journal, with a pronounced 66% of these voters favoring Biden in a direct matchup, whereas Trump secures a scant 18%. Furthermore, Trump's approval rating is a worrisome 41.5%, significantly lower than that of previous presidents at this point in their second terms. (Morrison, 2023) Trump's situation is made much more difficult by impending legal challenges, such as those pertaining to the Capitol incident on January 6th and the investigation into his financial activities. The odds appear to be stacked against him when you consider additional financial difficulties like growing interest rates and inflation. These figures and allusions suggest that Biden is in a stronger position going into the 2024 race.
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-results/

Arb with

@Predictor I don't see how to arb this

Arb with

@BoltonBailey I need to stop commenting about arbs before I fully take advantage of them.

@BoltonBailey This was pretty crazy though, I think it was at least around 40 mana lying on the ground.

@BoltonBailey https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/us-presidency-2024 is another

one

US Presidency 2024

Close date updated to 2024-11-06 9:00 am

@BoltonBailey for some reason, this has been consistently below the sum of the various Trump and Biden markets

@EliLifland I wouldn't trade that one. It's parimutuel and resolves the day after the election.

@BoltonBailey Why is parimutuel and resolving day after election bad?

@EliLifland With parimutuel, you don't get a fixed payout based on the number of shares you buy. Instead, you buy shares in a pool, and at the end, all the money is split among the winning pool. This means that if the election is decisive, people will buy up the winning pool, diluting the value of the shares.

@BoltonBailey Ah I found https://kevin.zielnicki.com/2022/02/17/manifold/, yeah I'll sell my positions in that market, thanks for the rec