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In the 2024 poll projections, Biden has a marginal lead over Trump, registering at 49% to Trump's 47% among the electorate. (Marist Poll, 2023) Both candidates grapple with favorability concerns, yet Biden enjoys the support of the ascendant Democratic Party. The Quinnipiac survey adds another dimension, revealing that 13% of voters expressing "somewhat" disapproval for Biden would still prefer him over Trump by an 11-point spread. (Quinnipiac University Poll, 2023) This is echoed by the Wall Street Journal, with a pronounced 66% of these voters favoring Biden in a direct matchup, whereas Trump secures a scant 18%. Furthermore, Trump's approval rating is a worrisome 41.5%, significantly lower than that of previous presidents at this point in their second terms. (Morrison, 2023) Trump's situation is made much more difficult by impending legal challenges, such as those pertaining to the Capitol incident on January 6th and the investigation into his financial activities. The odds appear to be stacked against him when you consider additional financial difficulties like growing interest rates and inflation. These figures and allusions suggest that Biden is in a stronger position going into the 2024 race.
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-results/
@BoltonBailey I need to stop commenting about arbs before I fully take advantage of them.
@BoltonBailey This was pretty crazy though, I think it was at least around 40 mana lying on the ground.
@BoltonBailey for some reason, this has been consistently below the sum of the various Trump and Biden markets
@EliLifland I wouldn't trade that one. It's parimutuel and resolves the day after the election.
@EliLifland With parimutuel, you don't get a fixed payout based on the number of shares you buy. Instead, you buy shares in a pool, and at the end, all the money is split among the winning pool. This means that if the election is decisive, people will buy up the winning pool, diluting the value of the shares.
@BoltonBailey Ah I found https://kevin.zielnicki.com/2022/02/17/manifold/, yeah I'll sell my positions in that market, thanks for the rec
Biden or Trump winning adds up to 86.8% over here: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/trump-vs-biden-2024
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Manifold Markets
Implied probability of Trump winning is at 14%
@Matto442 Feel free to make it so :-) https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-p
This is way too high. DeSantis is already favored in the Republican primary and (due to electoral college issues) in the general (even with his lower name recognition)
@AlexKChen My logic is that either Trump wins the republican nomination and either Biden or Trump wins or, alternatively, DeSantis wins the nomination, which makes Trump mad and he runs as an independent thus splitting the republican vote and Biden wins. Only thing to mess this up is if Biden/Democrats fuck up big time or Trump isn't allowed to run because of charges or something
@DOFT Your argument implies that Biden runs for Democrats though. I do believe that with reasonably high probability but I do understand that that market should be the upper bound on this one.
@b575 Only if you agree with the probability on that market. I think Biden has a much higher than 70% chance of being the Dem nominee.
@JosephNoonan Sure, how well-calibrated the other market is is an important question. However, I was speaking of the principled thing: chance of Biden not running is an independent factor that lowers the probability of the market we're currently in, and @DOFT's analysis made no reference to that.
@DOFT I agree - you might want to buy stocks in https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
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