Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump be elected President in 2024?
61%
chance
Resolves YES if they win the election, even if they do not end up being inaugurated (due to illness etc). Resolves NO if someone else wins the election.
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AlexKChen avatar
Alex K. Chen
is predicting NO at 50%

This is way too high. DeSantis is already favored in the Republican primary and (due to electoral college issues) in the general (even with his lower name recognition)

DOFT avatar
DOFT
is predicting YES at 62%

@AlexKChen My logic is that either Trump wins the republican nomination and either Biden or Trump wins or, alternatively, DeSantis wins the nomination, which makes Trump mad and he runs as an independent thus splitting the republican vote and Biden wins. Only thing to mess this up is if Biden/Democrats fuck up big time or Trump isn't allowed to run because of charges or something

b575 avatar
Дмитрий Зеленский
is predicting YES at 59%

@DOFT Your argument implies that Biden runs for Democrats though. I do believe that with reasonably high probability but I do understand that that market should be the upper bound on this one.

JosephNoonan avatar
Joseph Noonan
is predicting YES at 59%

@b575 Only if you agree with the probability on that market. I think Biden has a much higher than 70% chance of being the Dem nominee.

b575 avatar
Дмитрий Зеленский
is predicting YES at 59%

@JosephNoonan Sure, how well-calibrated the other market is is an important question. However, I was speaking of the principled thing: chance of Biden not running is an independent factor that lowers the probability of the market we're currently in, and @DOFT's analysis made no reference to that.

DOFT avatar
DOFT
is predicting YES at 60%

@b575 I thought it was fairly easy to see that Biden will be nominated. The incumbent advantage alone would probably be enough to guarantee it, but I think his experience as a senator and vice president as well as his accomplishments this past year make him the best choice so far.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle
is predicting YES at 60%
AngolaMaldives avatar
Angola Maldives
is predicting YES at 51%

Biden just informally announced his intention to run in 2024, so this should probably bounce a bit higher - unless people are confident enough that DeSantis will be the GOP nominee to cancel that out.

Forrest avatar
Forrest
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Related markets: https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/us-presidency-2024 Currently showing 53% on Trump and 27% on Biden; higher volume than this market, but there are some non-serious answers in there. https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-p https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres Currently showing 32% and 20% ...and this market here is at 62% as of this writing. I'm surprised these numbers are as different as they are.
AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman
is predicting YES at 50%

@Forrest This market is now lopsided the other way relative to those markets. Interesting, isn't it? I wonder if it's logically explainable by adding a belief that either of those men is less electable than a replacement candidate, and thus fares worse when not facing the other? I'd have to do some math to figure out how large the magnitude of that presumed effect would have to be to make the current disparity rational given the single-candidate values.

Jonathan avatar
Jonathan
bought Ṁ10 of NO
I don't see Trump winning again. In addition to this, (given the age of the candidates) the odds are fairly high that one or both candidates does not run again due to health issues.
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
sold Ṁ4 of YES
Biden is borderline r*tarded and can’t ride a bike. Trump has never had a hint of health issues and does multi-hour rallies on the reg. (And is 90%+ to run…)
JiSK avatar
JiSK
is predicting YES at 49%
Trump has never *admitted* a hint of health issues. Not the same thing. Even besides his general practice of being a lying sack of shit, he has performatively refused to provide evidence of good health, and has an extremely unhealthy lifestyle. There is plenty of space in his time in office in which to hide repeated illness, and some circumstantial evidence to suggest that he did in fact hide such.