If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he win the popular vote?
Basic
121
17k
Nov 5
65%
chance

Resolves YES if Donald Trump Sr. is elected and receives a pluraity of the popular vote, NO if he wins and another candidate receives a plurality, N/A otherwise.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Badly priced right now. Polls suggest that Trump has lost at least half of his EC-PV advantage from 2020.

Also, Republicans winning the PV market is at 20%. This means that Trump should be at almost 70% to win overall, which is clearly not what the general markets are pricing.

Arb: