
Will the voter turnout in the 2024 Presidential election be 64% or larger?
38
1kṀ4690resolved Dec 26
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ606 | |
2 | Ṁ252 | |
3 | Ṁ132 | |
4 | Ṁ110 | |
5 | Ṁ76 |
Sort by:
Is this as a share of Voting Age Population or Voting Eligible Population? See https://www.electproject.org/election-data/faq/vap-v-vap
@bitters 59% or 63.9% either way it is less than 64%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections
@ChristopherRandles I wasn't in this market, so I'm indifferent. But FWIW it's still very possible that as UF Election Lab incorporates more data, the Voting Eligible Pop vote share will break 64%. UFEL has 8,025,326 total votes for NY (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/), but Dave Leip has 8,300,211 (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/), and that's just the most glaring discrepancy at a glance.
Related questions
Related questions
Will the 2024 election have higher turnout than 2020?
1% chance
Will voter participation in the US be higher in 2024 than 2020?
2% chance
Will the Asian voter turnout in the 2024 Presidential election be 60% or larger?
59% chance
Will the Latino voter turnout in the 2024 Presidential election be 55% or larger?
38% chance
Will voter turnout in the 2024 presidential election in Wisconsin be higher percentwise than in 2020
36% chance
Will the 2024 Oregon voter turnout be higher than 2020 Oregon voter turnout?
82% chance
How large is the (optimal) voter margin for the US 2024 Presidential Election?
What will Trump's vote share be in the 2024 election?
Will the 2024 election have a young person voter turn out that surpasses that of the same turnout in the 2020 election?
65% chance