Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
Aug 23
Joe Biden
Kamala Harris

Resolves to whoever is selected as the United States Democratic Party nominee for President at the 2024 Democratic National Convention

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@PlasmaBallin barely? still, i bet on other stuff

@jim oh, someone else sniped it 😿

@PlasmaBallin It gave the odds of Biden getting elected at 49%, so I fixed it!

bought Ṁ8 Kamala Harris YES

@jim There's too many overlapping bets about 2024, someone needs to make a diagram.

opened a Ṁ1,000 Joe Biden NO at 91% order

@MichaelWheatley limit order 91% 💌

bought Ṁ2,500 Joe Biden YES

@jim I'll make the trade if you move it back down to 90

opened a Ṁ1,000 Joe Biden NO at 90% order

@MichaelWheatley done! 🖖

I understand why people are getting more skeptical it's gonna be Biden.

I don't understand why anyone thinks it could be Obama. She'll just never run.

@NcyRocks Me either, I think it's an irrational choice based on conspiracy theories. But I'll take my profit.

bought Ṁ20 Other YES

@Fedor I've seen some people with 'go michelle' novelty accounts max on her. Seems more like fan behaviour. Also for small probabilities it's very easy to move the market so someone dumping their free 500M when creating new account immediately distorts the market by a lot.

@NcyRocks Barack Obama was popular, she's popular, she's a black woman so she's one of the few people it won't look bad to pass over Kamala Harris in favor of. If the Democrats are purely interested in maximizing chances of electoral victory, you don't think there's a strong argument for drafting her, regardless of whether or not she wants the job? I think I put the prob of nomination at around 0.25%. Let me know if you want a bet at those odds, lol.

Can you add Hillary Clinton? I don't think it's all that plausible myself, but I've been hearing people talk about it on Twitter.

bought Ṁ1,000 Michelle Obama NO

@Base do you actually believe Michelle has a 5% chance

I made a market for one specific possibility (the only plausible one imo) where Biden isn't the nominee:

bought Ṁ750 Joe Biden YES

I keep thinking, "I should probably stop betting on the Biden nomination markets just in case he dies or something and I lose all my mana." But then people keep betting them down to such ridiculously low probabilities that I feel compelled to correct them.

@PlasmaBallin I mean, you could hedge the specific events you're worried about.

(My NO position here is actually arbitrage with another market.)

@jgyou I don't know of any markets that are liquid enough and have Biden's death at a low enough probability for me to do that.

A shame that Vermin Supreme isn't on here.

Can we get Ray Shaun Elussy added?

I find it funny Newsom is ahead of Dean!