MANIFOLD
Grok 4.20 (xAI) release date
69
Ṁ1.4kṀ32k
resolved Feb 19
Resolved
NO
Before 2025-12-25 (Christmas)
Resolved
NO
Before 2026-01-01
Resolved
NO
Before 2026-01-10
Resolved
NO
Before 2026-01-16
Resolved
NO
Before 2026-02-01
Resolved
NO
Before 2026-02-15
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-03-01
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-04-01
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-05-01

"Grok 4.2" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4.1 in a similar or greater way to how Grok 4.1 was the successor to Grok 4, so Grok 5.0, Grok 4.5, Grok 4.20, etc would count.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

/Bayesian/grok-42-xai-release (this market)

/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5

/Bayesian/gemini-35-google-release-date

/Bayesian/gemini-40-google-release-date

/Bayesian/gpt55-openai-release-date

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6

/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2

/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp

/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4

/Bayesian/when-will-moonshot-release-kimi-k3

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-their-next

/Bayesian/when-will-thinking-machines-announc

/Bayesian/veo-4-google-release-date

/Bayesian/new-image-video-mango-model-meta-re

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released

@patrik it's not "next week" yet, he was wrong again

April 20th

What happened, did anyone say it's in February?

@NayutaIto big E said it's releasing this week

@jim it happens every other week or so, why is everyone believing this time

@NayutaIto that’s false

@Bayesian i mean, he has given a lot of wrong statements about when it would be released. But this time it's different because it's such a short time frame that it's much harder for him to be delusional

it doesnt in fact happen every other week or so that he says it’s releasing this week

@Bayesian yes but you're reading an unjustified amount into the word 'it'

@jim ok ok but then yeah insufficiently updating on the ‘next week’

Remember it was once said the release was in 2025. When does his 2025 end?

@Bayesian want to bet more on before March at 45%?

@BenAybar yeah sure

Before 2026-01-16 can resolve NO

Elle hésita, puis s’approcha timidement, évitant de faire trop de bruit, comme si elle craignait de troubler un instant sacré

Can the “before Christmas market” be resolved?

@MaxLennartson merry christmas

@Bayesian Thanks!

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