Minor changes to the name, such as using "Claude 5 Opus" or "Claude 5.0" or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude 5, will count for the purpose of this market
To count as released, the model must be accessible to some people outside Anthropic. If it's banned in some country, this market would still resolve YES. If it is available through some API only this also counts as a release.
See also:
/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6
/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225 (this market)
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4
/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp
/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4
/Bayesian/when-will-moonshot-release-kimi-k3
1,000
just for fun, I had o3 estimate the chance per month that Anthropic would release a new version of Claude, based on the historic distribution of release date gaps.