When will Anthropic release Claude 5?
29
1.4kṀ7596
2026
4%
Before October 2025
6%
Before November 2025
10%
Before December 2025
15%
Before January 2026
20%
Before February 2026
32%
Before March 2026
41%
Before April 2026
47%
Before May 2026
57%
Before June 2026
65%
Before July 2026
75%
Before August 2026
78%
Before September 2026

Minor changes to the name, such as using "Claude 5 Opus" or "Claude 5.0" or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude 5, will count for the purpose of this market

To count as released, the model must be accessible to some people outside Anthropic. If it's banned in some country, this market would still resolve YES. If it is available through some API only this also counts as a release.

See also:

/Bayesian/when-will-google-release-gemini-3

/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6

/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225 (this market)

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4

/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp

/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-a-browser

/Bayesian/when-will-tesla-launch-unsupervised

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-their-next

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-sora-2

/Bayesian/when-will-thinking-machines-announc

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just for fun, I had o3 estimate the chance per month that Anthropic would release a new version of Claude, based on the historic distribution of release date gaps.

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