MANIFOLD
GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) release date
20
Ṁ1.2kṀ4.1k
Dec 31
2%
Before February 2026
5%
Before March 2026
18%
Before April 2026
35%
Before May 2026
37%
Before June 2026
49%
Before July 2026
58%
Before August 2026
67%
Before September 2026
73%
Before October 2026
79%
Before November 2026
86%
Before December 2026

Minor changes to the name, such as using "GPT 5.5 mini" or "GPT-5.5 high" instead of "GPT 5.5", are acceptable when determining the release. Also, any major iteration of OpenAI models clearly expected to go beyond "GPT 5.4" counts. eg. "GPT 5.6" counts if they skip over GPT 5.5. GPT 5.4 or GPT 5.3 do NOT count.

To count as released, the model must be accessible to some members of the public outside OpenAI (a closed beta doesn't count). If it is available through some API only this counts as a release.

See also:

/Bayesian/grok-42-xai-release

/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5

/Bayesian/gemini-35-google-release-date

/Bayesian/gpt55-openai-release-date (this market)

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6

/Bayesian/claude-46-anthropic-release-date

/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2

/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp

/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4

/Bayesian/when-will-moonshot-release-kimi-k3

/Bayesian/glm-5-zai-release-date

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-their-next

/Bayesian/when-will-thinking-machines-announc

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Would 5.3 count? Doesn't look like there is a similar market for potential releases between 5.2 and 5.5.

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