MANIFOLD
GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) release date
29
Ṁ1.2kṀ4.8k
Dec 31
11%
Before March 2026
12%
Before April 2026
18%
Before May 2026
22%
Before June 2026
35%
Before July 2026
47%
Before August 2026
58%
Before September 2026
63%
Before October 2026
70%
Before November 2026
76%
Before December 2026

Minor changes to the name, such as using "GPT 5.5 mini" or "GPT-5.5 high" instead of "GPT 5.5", are acceptable when determining the release. Also, any major iteration of OpenAI models clearly expected to go beyond "GPT 5.4" counts. eg. "GPT 5.6" counts if they skip over GPT 5.5. GPT 5.4 or GPT 5.3 do NOT count.

To count as released, the model must be accessible to some members of the public outside OpenAI (a closed beta doesn't count). If it is available through some API only this counts as a release.

See also:

/Bayesian/grok-42-xai-release

/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5

/Bayesian/gemini-35-google-release-date

/Bayesian/gemini-40-google-release-date

/Bayesian/gpt-53-openai-release-date

/Bayesian/gpt55-openai-release-date (this market)

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6

/Bayesian/claude-46-anthropic-release-date

/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2

/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp

/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4

/Bayesian/when-will-moonshot-release-kimi-k3

/Bayesian/glm-5-zai-release-date

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-their-next

/Bayesian/when-will-thinking-machines-announc

/Bayesian/veo-4-google-release-date

/Bayesian/new-image-video-mango-model-meta-re

  • Update 2026-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): GPT 5.5 Codex (or similar naming variations like "GPT-5.5 Codex") will count as a valid release for this market.

  • Update 2026-02-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): GPT 6 does NOT count as a valid release for this market (it must be GPT 5.5 or a version between 5.5 and 5.9).

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Would GPT 6 count?

5.5 codex count?

@7028 yea

OpenAI said that the next model they will release is GPT 5.3. Though I agree that the market should not resolve yes.

Would 5.3 count? Doesn't look like there is a similar market for potential releases between 5.2 and 5.5.

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