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MANIFOLD
Thinking Machines' first LLM announcement date
18
Ṁ1.7kṀ8k
resolved May 12
Resolved
NO
Before September 2025
Resolved
NO
Before October 2025
Resolved
NO
Before November 2025
Resolved
NO
Before December 2025
Resolved
NO
Before 2026
Resolved
NO
Before February 2026
Resolved
NO
Before March 2026
Resolved
NO
Before April 2026
Resolved
NO
Before May 2026
Resolved
YES
Before 2027
Resolved
YES
Before December 2026
Resolved
YES
Before November 2026
Resolved
YES
Before October 2026
Resolved
YES
Before September 2026
Resolved
YES
Before August 2026
Resolved
YES
Before July 2026
Resolved
YES
Before June 2026

Models are considered announced only if the announcements are made through some official channels. An announcement need not be accompanied by a release to count.

The AI announced must have a language output modality, ie it must be a language model. A model that only generates images or videos, or a robotic model, would not count.

See also:

Grok 5 (xAI) release date

Gemini 3.2 (Google) release date

Gemini 3.5 (Google) release date

Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date

GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) release date

GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Claude Mythos (Anthropic) release date

V4 (DeepSeek) release date

R2 / V4-Thinking (DeepSeek) release date

Llama 5 (Meta) release date

Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Kimi K3 (Moonshot) release date

GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date

M3 (Minimax) release date

Gemma 4 (Google) release date

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Thinking Machines' first LLM announcement date (this market)

Veo 4 (Google) release date

New image / video "Mango" model (Meta) release date

'Avocado' LLM (Meta) release date

Market context
Technology
AI
AI model releases
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bought Ṁ25 YES

https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/interaction-models/ resolves yes. this diagram in the blog post clearly shows the model can output text, and it is also evaluated on text-based benchmarks

@JaundicedBaboon ah yeah ty

@Bayesian this was the biggest market failure ive ever seen on manifold tbh

@JaundicedBaboon nobody newstrades anymore 😭

bought Ṁ17 YES

arb https://manifold.markets/jim/thinking-machines-releases-an-llm-b

why not do one of them date markets

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4% chance
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