Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Thinking Machines' first LLM announcement date
18
Ṁ1.7kṀ8k
resolved May 12
Resolved
NO
Before September 2025
Resolved
NO
Before October 2025
Resolved
NO
Before November 2025
Resolved
NO
Before December 2025
Resolved
NO
Before 2026
Resolved
NO
Before February 2026
Resolved
NO
Before March 2026
Resolved
NO
Before April 2026
Resolved
NO
Before May 2026
Resolved
YES
Before 2027
Resolved
YES
Before December 2026
Resolved
YES
Before November 2026
Resolved
YES
Before October 2026
Resolved
YES
Before September 2026
Resolved
YES
Before August 2026
Resolved
YES
Before July 2026
Resolved
YES
Before June 2026

Models are considered announced only if the announcements are made through some official channels. An announcement need not be accompanied by a release to count.

The AI announced must have a language output modality, ie it must be a language model. A model that only generates images or videos, or a robotic model, would not count.

See also:

Grok 5 (xAI) release date

Gemini 3.2 (Google) release date

Gemini 3.5 (Google) release date

Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date

GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) release date

GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Claude Mythos (Anthropic) release date

V4 (DeepSeek) release date

R2 / V4-Thinking (DeepSeek) release date

Llama 5 (Meta) release date

Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Kimi K3 (Moonshot) release date

GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date

M3 (Minimax) release date

Gemma 4 (Google) release date

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Thinking Machines' first LLM announcement date (this market)

Veo 4 (Google) release date

New image / video "Mango" model (Meta) release date

'Avocado' LLM (Meta) release date

Market context
AI
Technology
AI model releases
Thinking Machines
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ342
2Ṁ214
3Ṁ45
4Ṁ41
5Ṁ38

People are also trading

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date
Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)?
44% chance
Will the first AGI be a large language model?
63% chance
Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027?
4% chance
Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?
12% chance
Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)
73% chance
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
34% chance
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
Who will publicly release the first language model to be credibly accused of being responsible for 100 deaths?
Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence?
93% chance
Sort by:
bought Ṁ25 YES

https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/interaction-models/ resolves yes. this diagram in the blog post clearly shows the model can output text, and it is also evaluated on text-based benchmarks

@JaundicedBaboon ah yeah ty

@Bayesian this was the biggest market failure ive ever seen on manifold tbh

@JaundicedBaboon nobody newstrades anymore 😭

bought Ṁ17 YES

arb https://manifold.markets/jim/thinking-machines-releases-an-llm-b

why not do one of them date markets

People are also trading

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date
Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)?
44% chance
Will the first AGI be a large language model?
63% chance
Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027?
4% chance
Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?
12% chance
Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)
73% chance
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
34% chance
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
Who will publicly release the first language model to be credibly accused of being responsible for 100 deaths?
Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence?
93% chance