Grok 5 (xAI) release date

Question

"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

@NU2IyqRq0u

@LhlNpLyA2h

@8AyI5Np5yl (this market)

@OchSUnInIq

@cgl2IP0yIC

@cstO2OAIhZ

@LU5RqqqEuA

@t5Eh629zRE

@2OzL6Q56y8

@IZO2UZgUNO

@2CqdhIO9cU

@6SLuEUSN2g

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Before September 2026, followed by Before August 2026 and Before July 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (63 traders, as of Jun 10, 2026).

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