Minor changes to the name, such as using "Gemini 4 Pro" or "Gemini 4 Flash-Lite" or other names for a model generally expected to be called Gemini 4, will count for the purpose of this market.
To count as released, the model must be accessible to some people outside Google. If it's banned in some country, this market would still resolve YES. If it is available through some API only this also counts as a release.
See also:
/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5
/Bayesian/gemini-35-google-release-date
/Bayesian/gemini-40-google-release-date (this market)
/Bayesian/gpt-53-openai-release-date
/Bayesian/gpt55-openai-release-date
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6
/Bayesian/claude-46-anthropic-release-date
/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2
/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp
/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4
/Bayesian/when-will-moonshot-release-kimi-k3
/Bayesian/glm-5-zai-release-date
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-their-next
/Bayesian/when-will-thinking-machines-announc
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