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MANIFOLD
Veo 4 (Google) release date
25
Ṁ1.2kṀ7.3k
Oct 1
8%
Before September 2026
35%
Before October 2026
57%
Before November 2026

Minor changes to the name, such as 'Veo 4 Ultra', or other names for a model generally expected to be called Veo 4, will count for the purpose of this market.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

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Huh this keeps getting pushed back? Or Google have gone another route with their Omni models?

@Bayesian yo bro time for this month's resolution

Ah right so this was kind of bullshit. It was Gemini Omni and not Veo 4

are there any rumors on this?

@Bayesian "Before May 2026" can resolve NO