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MANIFOLD
Grok 4.7+ (xAI) release date
20
Ṁ250Ṁ3.8k
resolved Sep 21
Resolved
NO
Before 2026-09-11
Resolved
NO
Before 2026-09-21
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-10-01
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-10-11
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-10-21
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-11-01
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-12-01

The '+' means any version at or above 4.7 counts: if xAI skips 4.7 and releases Grok 4.8 or Grok 5, that still counts for the purpose of this market. Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Grok 4.7, will also count.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

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@Bayesian resolves now