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MANIFOLD
Kimi K3 (Moonshot) release date
33
Ṁ1.5kṀ17k
resolved Jul 20
Resolved
NO
Before December 2025
Resolved
NO
Before January 2026
Resolved
NO
Before February 2026
Resolved
NO
Before March 2026
Resolved
NO
Before April 2026
Resolved
NO
Before May 2026
Resolved
NO
Before June 2026
Resolved
NO
Before July 2026
Resolved
YES
Before November 2026
Resolved
YES
Before October 2026
Resolved
YES
Before September 2026
Resolved
YES
Before August 2026

Minor changes to the name, such as 'Kimi K3.5', or other names for a model generally expected to be called Kimi K3, will count for the purpose of this market.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

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Market context
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bought Ṁ81 NO

@Bayesian Before July 2026 resolves no

@Bayesian sorry for tagging you again. But bro I think you forgot about this one. <3

@Bayesian yo
Before May 2026 = No.

@Bayesian "Before April 2026" resolves NO

They keep vaguepoasting about it being big