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MANIFOLD
V4 (DeepSeek) release date
101
Ṁ1.6kṀ35k
resolved Apr 24
Resolved
NO
Before March 2025
Resolved
NO
Before April 2025
Resolved
NO
Before May 2025
Resolved
NO
Before June 2025
Resolved
NO
Before July 2025
Resolved
NO
Before August 2025
Resolved
NO
Before September 2025
Resolved
NO
Before October 2025
Resolved
NO
Before November 2025
Resolved
NO
Before December 2025
Resolved
NO
Before 2026
Resolved
NO
Before February 2026
Resolved
NO
Before March 2026
Resolved
NO
Before April 2026
Resolved
YES
Before May 2026
Resolved
YES
Before June 2026

Minor changes to the name, such as 'DeepSeek V4.1', or other names for a model generally expected to be called V4, will count for the purpose of this market.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

Grok 5 (xAI) release date

Gemini 3.2 (Google) release date

Gemini 3.5 (Google) release date

Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date

GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) release date

GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Claude Mythos (Anthropic) release date

V4 (DeepSeek) release date (this market)

R2 / V4-Thinking (DeepSeek) release date

Llama 5 (Meta) release date

Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Kimi K3 (Moonshot) release date

GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date

M3 (Minimax) release date

Gemma 4 (Google) release date

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Thinking Machines' first LLM announcement date

Veo 4 (Google) release date

New image / video "Mango" model (Meta) release date

'Avocado' LLM (Meta) release date

Market context
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@Bayesian does V4-Lite count for this market?

@PlasmaPower good question i'm surprised nobody's asked before. whenever i have to make a decision like this it always feels pretty arbitrary. I'll say no it doesn't count, as it's not the model expected to be called V4

bought Ṁ20 NO

@Bayesian I guess preview V4 flash and pro don’t count either if V4 lite doesn’t count.

@Mochi nahhhhhhhhhhhh V4 Pro is the model expected to be called V4

@Bayesian please resolve.

Thank you very much

opened a Ṁ2,500 YES at 73% order

@Jack1 meet me in the middle

bought Ṁ512 NO

@Bayesian Resolves NO

bought Ṁ350 NO

@Bayesian plese resolve NO

@Bayesian resolves no?

@Bayesian Resolves NO

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