Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Question

Minor changes to the name, such as 'Qwen 4.0', or other names for a model generally expected to be called Qwen 4, will count for the purpose of this market.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Before November 2026, followed by Before October 2026 and Before September 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (44 traders, as of Jul 25, 2026).

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