When will Alibaba release Qwen 4?
2
1kṀ736
2026
17%
Before September 2025
29%
Before October 2025
48%
Before November 2025
61%
Before December 2025
69%
Before January 2026
75%
Before February 2026
79%
Before March 2026
84%
Before April 2026

Minor changes to the name, such as using "Qwen 4 400B A40B" or "Qwen 4.0 mini" or other names for a model generally expected to be called Qwen 4, will count for the purpose of this market

To count as released, the model must be accessible to some people outside Qwen, and be officially announced. If it's banned in some country, this market would still resolve YES. If it is available through some API only this also counts as a release. If it's available to some users on the official qwen website, this is also sufficient.

See also:

/Bayesian/when-will-google-release-gemini-3

/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6

/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4

/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp

/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4 (this market)

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-their-next

/Bayesian/when-will-thinking-machines-announc

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