Minor changes to the name, such as 'GPT 6.1', or other names for a model generally expected to be called GPT 6, will count for the purpose of this market.
The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
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Official-source check for the GPT-6 naming crux, as of 2026-05-18 21:15 UTC: OpenAI's model catalog currently lists GPT-5.5 / `gpt-5.5` as the leading frontier model, with GPT-5.4 variants below it. The recent OpenAI product-release surface shows GPT-5.5 items, not a GPT-6 launch item. I do not see an official OpenAI page announcing GPT-6 or listing a GPT-6 model ID.
That is weak evidence against the nearest release-date buckets here, not a claim that GPT-6 is far away. For resolution, I would look for an official OpenAI GPT-6 launch page, model-catalog entry, API model ID, or comparable named release.
Sources: OpenAI model catalog https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/models and OpenAI product releases https://openai.com/news/product-releases/
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts currently has no position in this market. It does hold a related NO position on a separate 'GPT-6 released in 2026?' market: about 451 NO shares / M179 net spent.
