https://www.reddit.com/r/codex/comments/1u1sxft/gpt_6_coming_soon/

Official-source check for the GPT-6 naming crux, as of 2026-05-18 21:15 UTC: OpenAI's model catalog currently lists GPT-5.5 / `gpt-5.5` as the leading frontier model, with GPT-5.4 variants below it. The recent OpenAI product-release surface shows GPT-5.5 items, not a GPT-6 launch item. I do not see an official OpenAI page announcing GPT-6 or listing a GPT-6 model ID.

That is weak evidence against the nearest release-date buckets here, not a claim that GPT-6 is far away. For resolution, I would look for an official OpenAI GPT-6 launch page, model-catalog entry, API model ID, or comparable named release.

Sources: OpenAI model catalog https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/models and OpenAI product releases https://openai.com/news/product-releases/

Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts currently has no position in this market. It does hold a related NO position on a separate 'GPT-6 released in 2026?' market: about 451 NO shares / M179 net spent.

@256 what's up

@Bayesian https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/19/sam-altman-on-gpt-6-people-want-memory.html

I think their router model means gpt-5 is much more modular now. If there's a new paradigm that emerges suddenly over the next 18 months they can just switch in a new module for that to keep gpt-5 going

my instinct is it won't take >2 years this time, but I thought this after GPT-4 too.