Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date

Question

The '+' means any version at or above 4.8 counts: if xAI skips 4.8 and releases Grok 4.9 or Grok 5, that still counts for the purpose of this market. Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Grok 4.8, will also count.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

@8AyI5Np5yl

@OchSUnInIq

@cgl2IP0yIC

@LU5RqqqEuA

@2OzL6Q56y8

@IZO2UZgUNO

@2CqdhIO9cU

@AnL9Aqgzc5

@N0qR0nZl8O

@AzzEpzA8ys

@ntStglnQz0

@SCnZAUUzEP

@ytI2ZPyzt5

@y5CU6hUn6s

@lPSIdZRpQs

@qyC5ychznC

@RlI6hyuNpU (this market)

@2Rh2t5hALp

@NONz6Ntycp

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Before February 2027, followed by Before January 2027 and Before December 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (2 traders, as of Aug 31, 2026).

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