Buy Yes if you would get a million dollars
Buy No if you would get world peace for the next 50 years
This is the poll result on Reddit
Let's see the response of the Manifold Market Community
[Edit: this market resolved to Yes at closing. People who buy No would lose their tiny investment in this market]
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ142 | |
2 | Ṁ71 | |
3 | Ṁ33 | |
4 | Ṁ22 | |
5 | Ṁ8 |
@MartinRandall What’s a fake market?
I thought there’s plenty of markets on Manifold that simply gauge the opinions of people
@MartinRandall You’re entitled to your opinion.
I enjoy the variety of markets in Manifold, especially the experimental ones. If I only want to see well defined markets with objective resolution, I can find it else where.
@AmmonLam This is not a useful way to poll people, because they have no incentive to vote according to their true beliefs, and quite a good incentive to not do so; the incentive of not losing their mana. For an example of a way to run polls that let people spend more mana to express a stronger belief, see the structure I tested out here.
@IsaacKing Interesting. If Manifold were to implement the functionality for a no reward non-refundable market it would be more direct that what’s your trying to accomplish.