This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
98.1%
chance
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2030. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.
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YohanProYT avatar

I don't get it how are the first M$20 for free?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting YES at 97%

@YohanProYT That part of the description hasn't been updated since Manifold changed how loans worked a few months ago, it's no longer accurate.

YohanProYT avatar

@IsaacKing Oh okay so there were some kind of "freebets" in the past?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting YES at 97%

@YohanProYT Yeah, it was the same idea as today's loans, but they were limited to M$20, and you got them all immediately rather than 2% per day.

JoyVoid avatar
I'm confused, isn't there (strictly dominating) arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-114eccf1cb27 ? Why is this one higher?
MattP avatar
@JoyVoid the reality is the discount rate is so steep that most people aren't bothering investing any significant capital into these.
JoyVoid avatar
@MattP Probably another reason to remove fees
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Oh, I think I misunderstood the intention here. You're not looking for the true discount rate of M$, you're looking for the residual effects that it has on market probabilities due to there only being a finite number of people who take out loans.
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Does this actually measure the discount rate though? There's no downside to buying M$20 of yes, and enough people doing so will drive the price to 100% regardless of what the real discount rate is. Indeed, the loans were implemented in order to prevent discounting from affecting market probabilities; i.e. to prevent markets from displaying the exact type of behavior that you're trying to get this market to display.