This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2030. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.
I don't get it how are the first M$20 for free?
I'm confused, isn't there (strictly dominating) arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-114eccf1cb27 ? Why is this one higher?
Oh, I think I misunderstood the intention here. You're not looking for the true discount rate of M$, you're looking for the residual effects that it has on market probabilities due to there only being a finite number of people who take out loans.
Does this actually measure the discount rate though? There's no downside to buying M$20 of yes, and enough people doing so will drive the price to 100% regardless of what the real discount rate is. Indeed, the loans were implemented in order to prevent discounting from affecting market probabilities; i.e. to prevent markets from displaying the exact type of behavior that you're trying to get this market to display.
awe lottasold Ṁ9 NO from 98% to 98.1%
awe lottabought Ṁ10 NO from 98.0% to 98%
BowTrixcreated limit order for Ṁ200 NO at 99.0%
BowTrixcreated limit order for Ṁ1,000 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)
runebotBotbought Ṁ1 YES at 98.0%
Reality Quotientbought Ṁ10 NO at 98%
Reality Quotientbought Ṁ2 NO from 98.0% to 98%
Reality Quotientcreated limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 98%
Robin Greenbought Ṁ10 YES from 98% to 98.0%
Jackfilled limit order Ṁ7,063/Ṁ10,000 YES at 98%
Blaisesold Ṁ25 YES at 97%
Peter Wildefordsold Ṁ20 YES at 97%
Peter Wildefordbought Ṁ20 YES at 97%
Michael Wheatleybought Ṁ1 YES at 97%
coscreated limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 99.0%
coscreated limit order for Ṁ9,001 YES at 97%