Will Nothing Ever Happen? [Permanent - Monthly Resolution]
Basic
157
Ṁ71k
Aug 1
10%
August 2024
48%
September 2024
30%
October 2024
17%
November 2024
25%
December 2024

Often we have a lot of debate over whether Something Is Going To Happen, but usually it ends up Not Happening. I am increasingly confident that Nothing Ever Happens.

Summary: A month resolves YES if "Nothing Happened" in that month, according to the rules below. If "Something Happens" in a month, that month resolves NO.

Be ye warned, success in this market requires keeping up with every side of Manifold. Those who are not Extremely Online should think twice before investing heavily. But if you set up some limit orders, you can get a notification when it looks like a lot of mana is about to change hands!


Above is a list of the twenty most-traded unresolved markets on Manifold, as of 07/03/24.

I will try to keep this list updated, but be sure to check yourself! Markets which enter the top twenty after market creation become Potentially Something, and markets which leave the top twenty stop counting as Something.

A month will resolve YES iff no market in the top twenty at the time of its resolution resolves in that month because Something Happened. Note that a month does not resolve NO if a top-twenty market resolves because of Nothing Happening.

For example, if Vladimir Putin remains the president of Russia and the market about this resolves Yes, that's still a case of Nothing Ever Happening.

Likewise, if the main LK-99 market resolves YES in November then Something Has Happened and November resolves NO, but if the LK-99 market resolves NO then Nothing Is Continuing To Ever Happen and November would still be on track to resolve YES.

At the end of each month I will add in a new month. If a month resolves NO, I will also add in a new month and I will add an option for Nothing Else Happening in the month that just resolved NO.

I will not trade in this market, to keep myself unbiased about what counts as Something Ever Happening.

As of 07/03/24, I believe these resolutions are current potential Somethings that might Happen and resolve a month to No.

  • Anyone winning the US presidential election.

  • Anyone who isn't Biden or Trump winning the democratic or republican nominations.

  • Andrew Tate being found guilty.

  • AI being a major topic of discussion in the presidential debates.

  • Trump serving time.

  • AI getting gold in an international math Olympiad.

  • OpenAI hinting at or claiming to have AGI.

  • Donald Trump's vice presidential running mate is made official at the RNC.

  • GPT-5 releasing before 2025.

  • Covid-19 being proven to be a lab leak or not.

Things that I want to point out as not counting as something happening:

  • Anything in a grab-bag megamarket. These are a routine part of the site now, I would not count them as something happening just because they get into the top 20.

  • This year being hotter or colder than the previous year. This is pretty boring, and the market will just slowly increase or decrease as data comes in through the year. Too gradual to be Something in either direction.

Happy Trading!

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huh, would you look at that, 5 out of the last 10 months Something Happened. This is a coin flip market!

Nothing Ever Happens Something Sometimes Happens

Anyone but Biden becoming the nominee would definitely count as something happening when the relevant markets resolve.

@Joshua 👋

Trump's VP pick is likely to happen in July, so I think July should probably be lower!

Oh, notably Pat's market actually resolves at the convention... which is definitely in July. Hmm. Doesn't that mean July is certain to resolve no, as long as the VP market is still in the top 20?

@Joshua I suppose that's true, unless for some off the wall reason he doesn't announce a running mate by the time his ticket should solidify 🥲

"Anyone who isn't Biden or Trump winning the democratic or republican nominations."
I am a little confused as to why Biden or Trump winning their respective nominations would not be something happening, as, for a while, their nominations were unlikely according to their respective markets.

@JamesPetterson By the time this market was made, I considered them both near certainties.

@Joshua Ah ok, so if this market was made in, say, July 2022, then Biden winning the democratic primary would count as something happening?

@JamesPetterson If those markets had been in the top 20 at that time, then possibly! If something enters the top 20 markets when it's been pretty certain for a while I think that hurts its case for counting as something happening.

@Joshua Ok makes sense, thank you

bought Ṁ2,014 April 2024 NO

We have new potential Somethings in the top 20 most traded markets! The TikTok ban and Trump VP markets, specifically:



Oh, the GPT-5 release market too:


March 2024

So far as I know, nothing has happened this month according to this market's criteria.

Should this market have closed? I thought it was a permanent market?

bought Ṁ10 March 2024 YES
Mr Bean Reaction GIF

❤

reposted

Updated for March! This market should kind of make sense again now!

I don't see anything that is likely to happen this month, or indeed until the presidential election at this rate. That means that if a month resolves No, it should be because of something new and exciting!

A brief history of Nothing Happening:

  • In October, The Speaker of The House market resolves to Mike Johnson. October resolves No.

  • In November, The Sam Altman markets get big but none resolve that month. November resolves Yes.

  • In December, TIME person of the year resolves to Taylor Swift. December resolves No.

  • For the rest of December, nothing in the top 20 resolves. December Part 2 Resolves Yes.

  • In January, several things technically happen in the post new year's rush of resolutions but it was mostly boring. Resolves No, although it should have been Yes.

  • In February, the Sam Altman market that should have resolved in November finally resolved, February resolves No.

Now in March, there doesn't really seem to be anything on the horizon that can crack this top 20. I'd bet yes if i was allowing myself to bet on my own market!

@Joshua Looking forward the next months where something should happen is July and August for the RNC and DNC conventions respectively

@JamesF Those only count if someone besides Biden/Trump is nominated though!

@Joshua I find the resolution criteria around political markets confusing. At what point does a political figure winning an election or nomination the status quo. For example if Biden becomes 90% likely to win the election would him winning be something happening if the status quo of him being the president is kept and it was extremely likely to happen. And if that is something happening what is the difference between that and Biden winning the nomination.

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