Often we have a lot of debate over whether Something Is Going To Happen, but usually it ends up Not Happening. I am increasingly confident that Nothing Ever Happens.

Summary: A month resolves YES if "Nothing Happened" in that month, according to the rules below. If "Something Happens" in a month, that month resolves NO.

Be ye warned, success in this market requires keeping up with every side of Manifold. Those who are not Extremely Online should think twice before investing heavily. But if you set up some limit orders, you can get a notification when it looks like a lot of mana is about to change hands!

Above is a list of the twenty most-traded unresolved markets on Manifold, as of 10/02/24.

I will try to keep this list updated, but be sure to check yourself! Markets which enter the top twenty after market creation become Potentially Something, and markets which leave the top twenty stop counting as Something.

A month will resolve YES iff no market in the top twenty at the time of its resolution resolves in that month because Something Happened. Note that a month does not resolve NO if a top-twenty market resolves because of Nothing Happening.

For example, if Vladimir Putin remains the president of Russia and the market about this resolves Yes, that's still a case of Nothing Ever Happening.

Likewise, if the main LK-99 market resolves YES in November then Something Has Happened and November resolves NO, but if the LK-99 market resolves NO then Nothing Is Continuing To Ever Happen and November would still be on track to resolve YES.

At the end of each month I will add in a new month. If a month resolves NO, I will also add in a new month and I will add an option for Nothing Else Happening in the month that just resolved NO.

I will not trade in this market, to keep myself unbiased about what counts as Something Ever Happening.

As of 10/02/24, I believe these resolutions are current potential Somethings that might Happen and resolve a month to No.

• Anyone winning the US presidential election.

• Anyone who isn't Biden or Trump winning the democratic or republican nominations.

• Andrew Tate being found guilty.

• AI being a major topic of discussion in the presidential debates.

• Trump serving time.

• AI getting gold in an international math Olympiad.

• OpenAI hinting at or claiming to have AGI.

• GPT-5 releasing before 2025.

• Covid-19 being proven to be a lab leak or not.

• Joe Biden dying or resigning and therefore not finishing his term

• Someone/something other than the winner of the presidential election being the TIME person of the year
  

Things that I want to point out as not counting as something happening:

• Anything in a grab-bag megamarket. These are a routine part of the site now, I would not count them as something happening just because they get into the top 20.

• This year being hotter or colder than the previous year. This is pretty boring, and the market will just slowly increase or decrease as data comes in through the year. Too boring to be Something in either direction.

Happy Trading!