Will Nothing Ever Happen? [Permanent - Monthly Resolution]
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Plus
189
Ṁ90k
resolved Dec 2
Resolved
YES
October 2024 Part 2 - Resolves YES if Nothing Ever Happens after Jimmy Carter's 100th birthday
Resolved
YES
November 2023
Resolved
YES
September 2024
Resolved
YES
June 2024
Resolved
YES
March 2024
Resolved
YES
May 2024
Resolved
YES
December 2023 Part 2 - Resolves YES if Nothing Else happens in December after one Something Happens. Resolves NO if Something Else happens in December.
Resolved
NO
October 2024
Resolved
NO
July 2024
Resolved
NO
December 2023
Resolved
NO
January 2024
Resolved
NO
February 2024
Resolved
NO
April 2024
Resolved
NO
August 2024
Resolved
NO
October 2023
Resolved
NO
November 2024
Resolved
NO
December 2024

Often we have a lot of debate over whether Something Is Going To Happen, but usually it ends up Not Happening. I am increasingly confident that Nothing Ever Happens.

Summary: A month resolves YES if "Nothing Happened" in that month, according to the rules below. If "Something Happens" in a month, that month resolves NO.

Be ye warned, success in this market requires keeping up with every side of Manifold. Those who are not Extremely Online should think twice before investing heavily. But if you set up some limit orders, you can get a notification when it looks like a lot of mana is about to change hands!

Above is a list of the twenty most-traded unresolved markets on Manifold, as of 12/01/24.

I will try to keep this list updated, but be sure to check yourself! Markets which enter the top twenty after market creation become Potentially Something, and markets which leave the top twenty stop counting as Something.

A month will resolve YES iff no market in the top twenty at the time of its resolution resolves in that month because Something Happened. Note that a month does not resolve NO if a top-twenty market resolves because of Nothing Happening.

For example, if Vladimir Putin remains the president of Russia and the market about this resolves Yes, that's still a case of Nothing Ever Happening.

Likewise, if the main LK-99 market resolves YES in November then Something Has Happened and November resolves NO, but if the LK-99 market resolves NO then Nothing Is Continuing To Ever Happen and November would still be on track to resolve YES.

At the end of each month I will add in a new month. If a month resolves NO, I will also add in a new month and I will add an option for Nothing Else Happening in the month that just resolved NO.

I will not trade in this market, to keep myself unbiased about what counts as Something Ever Happening.

As of 12/01/24, I believe these resolutions are current potential Somethings that might Happen and resolve a month to No.

  • Bitcoin hitting 100k in 2024

  • Joe Biden pardoning his son

  • Andrew Tate being found guilty.

  • Trump serving time.

  • AI getting gold in an international math Olympiad.

  • OpenAI hinting at or claiming to have AGI.

  • GPT-5 releasing before 2025.

  • Covid-19 being proven to be a lab leak or not.

  • Joe Biden dying or resigning and therefore not finishing his term

  • Someone/something other than the winner of the presidential election being the TIME person of the year

  • The US entering a recession by the end of 2024

  • A large language model beating a super grandmaster in chess

Things that I want to point out as not counting as something happening:

  • Anything in a grab-bag megamarket. These are a routine part of the site now, I would not count them as something happening just because they get into the top 20.

  • This year being hotter or colder than the previous year. This is pretty boring, and the market will just slowly increase or decrease as data comes in through the year. Too boring to be Something in either direction.

Happy Trading!

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@Joshua will this be continuing into 2025?

bought Ṁ282 YES

@creator October Part 2 resolves YES

October resolves NO due to Jimmy Carter becoming a centenarian! October Part 2 has been added for anything else that might happen this month. I'm also making a ruling now that the TIME POTY being the winner of the election doesn't count as something happening, as that is what everyone expects. AI or something else unexpected being person of the year would count though.

opened a Ṁ10 YES at 63% order

@Joshua I don't disagree with the resolution, it's technically correct, but based on vibes Jimmy didn't die - nothing happened.

Deleted.

@Joshua, would Jimmy Carter becoming a centenarian (https://manifold.markets/RiconsaurusRex/will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar) cause October to resolve NO?

@DanielTilkin Hmmm looks like it's just barely in the top 20 now so yeah, I suppose it would. But I also think that him dying and the market resolving no would be a sudden shock to the manifold economy that should also count as something happening. So it's like with the presidency, where any outcome is a big moment and counts.

Updating the OP now.

bought Ṁ843 NO

@Joshua August can resolve NO. "Who will be the Democratic Party presidential nominee?" resolved to Harris, and "Who will be the 2024 Democratic nominee for VP? (Vice President)" resolved to Walz.

Funny song about nothing ever happening: https://youtu.be/Qg_pRF76uxk?t=208

reposted

This market is hilarious

Wow bad month for Nothing Happening!

huh, would you look at that, 5 out of the last 10 months Something Happened. This is a coin flip market!

Nothing Ever Happens Something Sometimes Happens

Anyone but Biden becoming the nominee would definitely count as something happening when the relevant markets resolve.

@Joshua 👋

Trump's VP pick is likely to happen in July, so I think July should probably be lower!

Oh, notably Pat's market actually resolves at the convention... which is definitely in July. Hmm. Doesn't that mean July is certain to resolve no, as long as the VP market is still in the top 20?

@Joshua I suppose that's true, unless for some off the wall reason he doesn't announce a running mate by the time his ticket should solidify 🥲

"Anyone who isn't Biden or Trump winning the democratic or republican nominations."
I am a little confused as to why Biden or Trump winning their respective nominations would not be something happening, as, for a while, their nominations were unlikely according to their respective markets.

@JamesPetterson By the time this market was made, I considered them both near certainties.

@Joshua Ah ok, so if this market was made in, say, July 2022, then Biden winning the democratic primary would count as something happening?

@JamesPetterson If those markets had been in the top 20 at that time, then possibly! If something enters the top 20 markets when it's been pretty certain for a while I think that hurts its case for counting as something happening.

@Joshua Ok makes sense, thank you

bought Ṁ2,014 NO

We have new potential Somethings in the top 20 most traded markets! The TikTok ban and Trump VP markets, specifically:



Oh, the GPT-5 release market too:


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