Capturing the chance of democratic backsliding, but with a significantly lower bar than a majority.
Exact same resolution criteria as @chrisjbillington's market, but resolves YES if in any release of The Economist Democracy Index up to and including the 2033 release (likely to be published in early 2034), 20% or more of the listed countries are no longer listed as democracies, being listed instead either as a "hybrid" or "authoritarian" regimes.
If there is any dispute on the resolution I will defer to @chrisjbillington if he's willing, or use my best interpretation of his criteria if he is not available.
Related questions
They already aren't democracies lmao. Policy is dictated by capital and the opinion of the majority has little to no effect on policy. The Economist will definitely not report this information though.
@NickAllen Resolves via the Economist Democracy index as the description specifies, for more info see the linked market.